- Fundstrat published a report that predicts a 100% return on Bitcoin.
- The positive return will have 3 catalysts: geopolitical, electoral and the Bitcoin halvening. This last one is still not priced in.
Fundstrat head of research Thomas Lee summarized the Bitcoin Crypto Outlook for 2020. The report states that this year Bitcoin’s ROI will reach 100 percent. The positive performance will be driven by 3 factors that, according to the report, will increase the use cases for Bitcoin and improve its economic model.
Tension in the Middle East and election year drives the price of Bitcoin
Tom Lee set 2019 Bitcoin’s earnings at 92%. Fundstrat’s head of research said the performance of the cryptocurrency was impressive considering the setbacks over the past year. Two major setbacks to the ecosystem came from the same source, opposition from politicians and regulators. Specifically, the report notes the rejection of Facebook Libra and the blows to the cryptomarket from the U.S. Congress.
In 2020 the performance of the ecosystem will also be influenced by U.S. decisions. The first two factors that will be a catalyst for Bitcoin’s performance will be the conflict that has intensified between Iran and the U.S. The cryptomarket is responding to these tensions and is registering positive gains as unrest over the conflict increases.
In addition, the report states that the U.S. elections will be another catalyst for Bitcoin. Historically, the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the election has served as a price driver. Investors may look for a safe haven in Bitcoin and thus increase the buying pressure.
Finally, the above factors are expected to combine with the halving due to take place on May 20, 2020. The event has a history of being bullish for the price of Bitcoin. This is caused by the reduction in the reward for mining the Bitcoin blocks. The halving will reduce the reward from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC and reduce inflation in the cryptocurrency. However, there is still no consensus in the cryptocommunity on how the halving will affect the price of Bitcoin.
We published our 2020 Crypto outlook and made the full report available for our clients.
– bottom line: financial markets tend to discount 1-3 months, and maybe 6 months (max). So highest probability is halvening not priced in
— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) January 10, 2020
Bitcoin Halving still not priced in
The report published by Lee states that there is a high probability that the halving is still not priced in. Analysts are still divided on this issue. Some point out that the halving may not have any effect on the price, due to the inefficiency of the market and the change it has had since the last halving. Others point out that it is still too far away to reach a satisfactory conclusion.
The report released by Lee matches Bloomberg’s Crypto Outlook for 2020. There, Mike McGlone, Senior Strategist at Commodity, points out that the volatility of Bitcoin will decrease, but Bitcoin is likely to reach a new 1 year high around $14,000 USD.
The price of Bitcoin trades, at the time of publication, $8,173 with a 1.10% profit in the last 24 hours. The last technical analysis indicates that the most optimistic possibility for Bitcoin is that it will break the strong resistance at $8,500 .
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