- Market analyst Benjamin Cowen speculates that a Bitcoin price bottom could be reached in December.
- Market watchers have been having mixed expectations for when the BTC bear market will end.
Market analysts continue to speculate that the price of Bitcoin may have not reached a bottom at its current price. Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen is among such commentators who expect the market to mimic other bear market cycles, particularly the capitulation scenario of 2018.
In a new analysis, Cowen opined that it would not be unreasonable to expect a bottoming scenario similar to that of 2018 in which BTC made a series of slightly higher lows before sharply capitulating to new lows to reach its price bottom.
Cowen extrapolated historical data from the 200-day moving average technical indicator to support his argument. According to him, the current market could see a potential capitulation event to mark the bottom around the Christmas holiday of this year. At this point, BTC could be poised for a bull run. He added;
We could sort of extrapolate out the 200-day simple moving average if it were to continue on down on its current trajectory, where might it cross?… You could see that it would cross somewhere in late December, right around Christmas, December 25th, December 26th, December 27th, around the holidays is where it would cross,
While conceding that the analysis is just speculation, he further noted that bear cycles in the Bitcoin market have historically lasted an average of one year. The current bear market has been going on for over a year and therefore may soon come to an end, he said, adding the disclaimer that investors should not spend too much energy trying to call the bottom.
So far in 2022 making the case for the bottom has not really served anyone well, and that’s why at the beginning of the year we said, ‘Look, don’t spend too much mental energy trying to call a bottom in 2022’
Could the price of BTC continue to crash?
Previously, Cowen told his over 770k subscribers to watch out for the crossing of the Bitcoin percentage of supply in profit and the Bitcoin 30-day moving average metrics as the occurrence could mark the market bottom as it has done in other bear markets.
While this cross has yet to materialize, analysts and market participants are expecting the price of Bitcoin to fall further than even the two-year low price of around $15,600 it reached last week.
According to a Wall Street Journal (WSJ) report, Jake Wujastyk, VP at TrendSpider LLC, has speculated that the Bitcoin market had formed a clear “bear flag” and would inevitably drop to new lows or potentially drop to zero.
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In contrast, Galaxy Digital’s Mike Novogratz recently asserted that crypto is not going anywhere and will recover to new highs. BTC is trading at around $16,200, down 2.07 percent in the last 24 hours at the time of writing.