- Bitcoin may rise near $100K based on the Q4 average and median returns from the history of previous years.
- Ethereum fee volatility has reduced with EIP-1559, but a reduction in DeFi and NFT activity could cancel the upgrade’s deflationary action.
Ever since its embryonic days, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies have received multiple varied price predictions from both enthusiasts and skeptics. Kraken, one of the leading crypto exchange platforms by daily traded volume, believes the trendsetter Bitcoin (BTC) could nudge $100,000 before the end of the year.
Citing data from previous years in its recently published report, Kraken highlights BTC’s price surge in Q4 of every year. This period, as the exchange says, has always attracted “an average and median return of +119 percent and +58 percent, respectively.”
Going by this inclination, BTC could close the year at a near $100,000 price in case of average returns. As Kraken states,
At BTC’s quarter-end closing price of $43,800, a +119% return in Q4 2021 would put BTC at roughly $96,000.
Bitcoin topping $100K by December
However, should median returns dominate, Bitcoin could finish the year at $70,000. Our data shows the flagship cryptocurrency has, this October, been touching highs it previously saw in April. BTC was changing hands at $56,502, with a $1 trillion market cap as of this writing.
Notably, Kraken’s bullish report almost mirrors that of famed anonymous crypto analyst PlanB, who predicts Bitcoin at $135K by December. The sentiments are also backed by a report from JPMorgan showing increased investor interest in the digital asset as an inflation hedge.
However, crypto skeptics such as renowned hedge fund manager Michael Burry and gold bug Peter Schiff still hold onto the belief of cryptocurrencies being just another bubble that must soon burst. Other analysts yet, such as economist Steve Hanke, warn of Bitcoin’s eventual crash as the greed index rises.
Ethereum and its network gas fees
Other than that, the Kraken report covered the 1st runners up, Ethereum (ETH). The exchange noted that the EIP-1559 upgrade had had a positive impact on the volatile nature of Ethereum’s fees. Additionally, Ether’s daily burn and subsequent deflationary action are mostly driven by the high activities with regards to NFTs and decentralized exchanges. A decline in the two would, therefore, result in “ETH being less disinflationary and subsequently temporarily soften demand for the crypto asset.”
Since the upgrade’s implementation, ETH has risen from around $2,818 to $3,581 at writing time, according to our data. Thousands of ETH have been burned, increasing the token’s value in tandem with scarcity.
Nonetheless, as Chinese journalist Wu Blockchain points out, Ethereum gas fees have not been amended by the EIP-1559 upgrade as was expected. Miners do not specify a “base ad priority fee,” which is what the standard was all about. This illustrates that Ethereum’s upgrade only increased fee predictability. Ethereum’s gas fees remain high, owing to congestion from the NFT and DeFi frenzy. Nevertheless, the much anticipated ETH 2.0 will involve sharding which is expected to drastically increase network bandwidth and low gas costs.