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- The probability for the Bitcoin price to reach $20,000 is 5%, according to the Bitcoin options data of Skew.
- Experts are still discussing whether Bitcoin can reach a new all-time high this year.
Bitcoin and the crypto market have had a tough month. The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic brought uncertainty to the crypto market and the traditional financial system.The major cryptocurrencies experienced significant sudden declines and the volatility in the market increased with the fear to the pandemic. However, in the last week the first cryptocurrency by market capitalization has shown signs of recovery as its most important event approaches: the Bitcoin halving.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin trades at $7,284 with a 1.12% loss in the last 24 hours. On the weekly chart, the cryptocurrency is showing a 13.20% gain and on the monthly chart it is still showing a 9.60% loss. For now, the lateral trend is fragile and analysts are divided over the trajectory that Bitcoin will follow from now on.
Will Bitcoin beat the odds?
The research firm Skew has drawn up a graph with the probabilities of Bitcoin reaching a certain price during the year. The graph is based on data from the derivatives market. According to the data, Bitcoin has only a 5% chance of exceeding the all-time high of $20,000 by December.
However, the metric could change pre and post Bitcoin halving. For now it is an indicator of general market sentiment. The chart also shows that the BTC price has a 3% to 6% chance of reaching or exceeding its mid-February price at some point in April. In February Bitcoin was up by $10.2K after having one of the best starts of the year in its history. In addition, for May, June, and September the chances of Bitcoin surpassing the $10,000 mark increases, September is the most likely month with 20%.
Skew’s metrics show a low percentage for Bitcoin to achieve the decribed goal, but important personalities and analysts have made statements that are along those lines. Bitcoin investor and Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said in a recent interview that 2020 is the year of Bitcoin. According to Novogratz, the conditions for Bitcoin to reach new highs are in place. The Bitcoin bull also outlined that if Bitcoin doesn’t manage to rise in the face of the Fed’s “infinite money policy”, he will withdraw his investment in BTC.
Agreeing with Novogratz, Dan Morehead of Pantera Capital said that standard monetary policy tools are ineffective in combating the current crisis. Morehead said that the measures the U.S. is taking will make it more indebted than when it emerged from the Great Recession and World War II. The impact of Bitcoin will be the following:
Bitcoin may set new highs in the next 12 moths. But not overnight. Institutions may take 2-3 moths to triage current portfolio issues. 3-6 to research opportunities like distressed debt, crypto, etc. Then, as they begin making allocations, those markets will begin to rise.
1/ I have spent 35 years trading global macro disruptions. This is like no other. This will certainly end the longest global expansion on record.
Bitcoin was born in a financial crisis. It will come of age in this one.
Here are my thoughts: https://t.co/yjx2FwEEoN
— Dan Morehead (@dan_pantera) March 26, 2020
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