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- Bitcoin (BTC) has been getting a number of positive projections from industry leaders.
- Latest is the $100,000 prediction from Fidelity Investment’s Jurrien Timmer by the end of this year.
Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, have made a bold forecast that the world’s biggest cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $100,000 by the end of 2023 and an even more astonishing $1 billion by 2038.
Timmer, the industry expert, highlighted in a Twitter thread that Metcalfe’s Law was utilized as a foundation for his estimate of Bitcoin’s future price. The law states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of its users.
As discussed in my previous thread, Bitcoin is ahead of itself at its current price of $28k. So what do we make of it? Bitcoin’s price is primarily a function of its adoption curve (and of course its limited supply, which feeds into the curve). Therefore, we need to consider both… pic.twitter.com/aiqpK6kRks
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) May 31, 2023
In the case of Bitcoin, this implies that as the number of Bitcoin users grows, the value of the network and the price of Bitcoin itself can experience significant growth. By combining the stock-to-flow model, which considers the scarcity of Bitcoin due to its limited supply, with his demand model, Timmer attempted to forecast the potential growth of Bitcoin.
Furthermore, Timmer’s stock-to-flow combination model, which considers Bitcoin scarcity, predicts a price range of $1 million to $10 million by 2030. The Director’s demand model likely considers various factors such as adoption rates, market sentiment, and macroeconomic conditions to estimate future demand for Bitcoin.
Notably, the model’s estimate of $1 million by 2030 indicates a strong conviction in Bitcoin’s future growth potential and acceptance as a mainstream asset. On the other hand, the stock-to-flow combination model, which has gained popularity among crypto analysts, focuses on the scarcity of Bitcoin as a key driver of its value.
This model considers the finite quantity of Bitcoin and compares it to the flow of new coins entering the market over time. However, the large price range of $1 million to $10 million reflects the ambiguity and volatility surrounding crypto price projections.
One of the proposed explanations for the wide gap is a change in the value of the dollar. It should be noted, however, that this logic is not absolute.
The Journey of Bitcoin (BTC) to $1 Billion by 2038
Timmer’s bold projection that Bitcoin will reach $1 billion by 2038 demonstrates his belief in the coin’s long-term viability and growth. This would establish Bitcoin (BTC) as a major player in the global financial landscape, threatening existing asset classes and currencies.
The analyst’s prediction is based on the premise that the value of the US dollar changes in relation to other assets. He also noted that the value of $1 invested in stocks in the 18th century is worth approximately $4 billion today.
By extrapolating this concept, Timmer suggests that if $1 million today were to experience similar growth rates over the next twenty years, it could potentially reach a value of $1 billion. Fidelity Investments has been closely monitoring the development and adoption of cryptocurrencies. The firm had previously predicted that Bitcoin will touch $100 million price levels by 2035 using the Stock-to-Flow model.
Interestingly, the firm’s digital asset division, Fidelity Digital Assets, has become increasingly involved in the crypto space, offering custodial and trading services for institutional investors.
