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- XRP ETF approval odds hit 85% as SEC adjusts listing rules and settlement structures.
- Market eyes September–October window while Ripple’s legal case could shift ETF timeline fast.
A possible XRP ETF approval may land as early as September, according to Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposed new listing standards for cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs), potentially opening the door for several altcoin ETFs. These standards apply to digital assets with more than six months of futures trading activity.
Balchunas explained that the updated criteria specifically impact cryptocurrencies already traded on platforms like Coinbase’s derivatives exchange. XRP is among the 18 qualifying tokens, alongside Solana, Dogecoin, Litecoin, Hedera, Polkadot, and Cardano. These changes suggest the SEC is laying regulatory groundwork to consider multiple ETF applications over the coming months.
Balchunas highlighted a promising timeline, saying,
September or October appears to be the likeliest window for approval.
According to him, the approval chances remain solid, with XRP ETF possibilities standing at 85%. Statistics from Polymarket also indicate the same prediction, with approval likelihood hitting 86%.
The SEC's "Listing Standards" for crypto ETPs is out via new exchange filing. BOTTOM LINE: Any coin that has futures tracking it for >6mo on Coinbase's derivatives exchange would be approved (below is list). It's about a dozen of the usual suspects, the same ones we had at 85% or… https://t.co/QlzZnta7Yv pic.twitter.com/CmBr8XxAcM
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) July 30, 2025
SEC Operational Shift Increases Approval Possibility
Apart from listing criteria, the SEC has also approved an operational reform enabling the issuers of ETFs to create or redeem shares directly from the underlying cryptocurrency rather than in cash. This eliminates a long-standing structural hurdle to altcoin ETFs. This should pave the way for XRP and others to enter the ETF market in the near term.
Crypto lawyer Bill Morgan noticed this mechanism would facilitate settlement speed and save operational costs. By allowing ETFs to trade on true digital coins rather than fiat currencies, the system becomes more comparable with models deployed on commodities like gold.
Applications from large corporations such as Franklin Templeton and Bitwise currently remain with the SEC for consideration. Although the agency once postponed its application deadline for Franklin Templeton through the end of 2025, the most recent regulation updates now show that an earlier settlement potentially could be possible.
XRP Legal Roadblocks May Be Cleared Soon
A long-running legal battle between the SEC and Ripple remains a complicating factor, but the turning point is possibly imminent. The former SEC lawyer Marc Fagel signaled that both parties may consent to withdraw the appeal before the August 15 status report. If that happens, it would potentially eliminate the last of the few roadblocks to the approval of the ETF.
Observers now look to October as the most likely month for a final decision. Balchunas maintained probabilities have been consistent regardless of the legal environment, claiming his team is optimistic for several approvals within the new parameters.
The XRP market has remained quite robust. Now it is exchanging hands at $3.16, up 1.73% over the past 24 hours. The trade volume has surged up by $11.99%, bringing the total to $6.44 billion. CNF in the previous article said technical analyses show potential resistance levels between $3.60 and $3.90 and potentially move to $6.90 should the momentum persist.
