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- Whale supply on Binance dropped from 9.6% to 7.7% in 15 months, signaling changing market dynamics.
- Market momentum appears fueled by retail investors and ETFs, not traditional whale dominance.
Bitcoin’s price has returned to the spotlight after briefly reaching $125,000. However, behind this surge, on-chain data raises a major question: who is actually driving the market when whales appear to be retreating from the spotlight?
According to Arab Chain analysis, there is a striking discrepancy between the surge in Bitcoin’s price and the share of supply held by whales on Binance. In just seven days, the percentage of whale supply plummeted from 8.02% to 7.7%.
This decline extends a trend dating back to mid-2024, when the figure was around 9.6%. This means that in the past 15 months, whale holdings on the exchange have fallen by more than 19%. However, don’t be too quick to assume this is a signal for a massive sell-off.
The data shows that the majority of whales are moving their assets to cold storage for long-term holding. In other words, they are choosing a defensive strategy rather than releasing Bitcoin to the market.
Bitcoin Whale Moves Reveal Clash Between Smart and Dumb Money
On the other hand, analyst Killa observed that in the $110,000–$120,000 price range, there was a wave of whale wallet movements, said to be the largest since January 2025, before the price plummeted to $75,000.
He called this a phase where “smart money” begins to exit, while “dumb money” enters. Ironically, while the term may sound cynical, this kind of situation can persist for weeks before there is a clear change in direction.
Furthermore, despite the signs of smart money exiting, other analysts see a different perspective. On-chain analyst Ali Martinez reported that in the past week, whales purchased over 60,000 BTC. Such a large figure is certainly not to be ignored.
Over 60,000 Bitcoin $BTC bought by whales in one week! pic.twitter.com/MJdcIwo47u
— Ali (@ali_charts) October 6, 2025
We also reported a few days ago that whale selling pressure is easing, which could signal a re-accumulation phase to support short-term momentum.
Looking at on-chain indicators, the situation remains quite healthy. The SOPR is at 1.02, indicating that short-term holders are still making reasonable profits. The next critical level is 1.04, which is often a vulnerable point for trend shifts. Under these conditions, many market participants believe the upward trend still has room.
Retail Investors Taking Over?
However, the fact that the price continues to rise despite the continued decline in whale supply on exchanges suggests something interesting: the main driver appears to be coming from outside the whale group.
Analysts at Arab Chain emphasize that while a decrease in whale supply is usually considered a bearish signal, this context is different. The market is driven by retail investors, short-term speculators, and institutions buying through ETFs. So, it could be said that the baton has temporarily changed hands.
Not only that, the current BTC price remains at about $123,951, with fairly consistent performance, rising slightly by 0.02% in the last 24 hours, jumping 8.27% in the last 7 days, and growing 12.37% in the last 30 days. These figures indicate that despite the diminishing role of whales, market enthusiasm remains strong.
