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- SEC’s approval odds for XRP ETFs stand at 65%, influenced by legal challenges and a shift in regulatory stance after court rulings.
- Due to the SEC recognizing their commodity status, Dogecoin and Litecoin ETFs have higher approval chances, with 75% and 90% odds, respectively.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could soon decide to approve crypto ETFs for XRP and Dogecoin (DOGE). Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have predicted a high probability of recognition for these filings, which could impact the future of crypto-based financial products.
Several asset managers, including Grayscale, Bitwise, Canary, 21Shares, and WisdomTree, have filed registration statements to launch XRP ETFs. As reported by CNF, these filings, along with Form 19b-4 submissions to the SEC through exchanges like Nasdaq and Cboe, are at the core of ongoing discussions around crypto ETFs. The SEC has not yet acknowledged the 19b-4 filings for XRP, but the industry hopes these filings could be addressed within the coming days.
According to Balchunas and Seyffart, the likelihood of XRP ETF approval stands at approximately 65%. While this figure suggests that approval is not guaranteed, it indicates a better-than-average chance. The analysts’ outlook is largely shaped by the SEC’s stance on XRP, which remains a major issue due to its prior classification as a security under previous leadership. However, a federal court’s ruling overturned that categorization, contributing to a shift in the SEC’s approach.
NEW: @EricBalchunas and I took a look at the filings for spot crypto ETFs. We're putting out relatively high odds of approval across the board. Mainly focused on Litecoin, Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin for now.
Here's the table with the odds and some other details: pic.twitter.com/xaXaNXLb0M
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) February 10, 2025
Approval Odds for Dogecoin and Other Altcoins
While XRP’s approval odds remain uncertain due to ongoing legal battles, CNF noted that Dogecoin and other altcoins like Litecoin (LTC) and Solana (SOL) have better chances of ETF approval, according to the analysts. The approval odds for a Dogecoin ETF are 75%, largely because the SEC considers DOGE a commodity. This designation differentiates Dogecoin from assets like XRP, which the SEC has yet to recognize as such.
In comparison, Litecoin has the highest chance of approval among the altcoins, with a 90% likelihood of success. The SEC views Litecoin as a commodity, and the agency has already acknowledged the filings for LTC ETFs. Moreover, while not yet acknowledged by the SEC, Solana’s ETF filings have a 70% chance of approval.
However, approval remains uncertain until further regulatory hurdles are cleared. For XRP, one major obstacle is its ongoing legal battle with the SEC. Until the litigation between Ripple and the SEC is resolved, the chances of an XRP ETF being approved will likely remain slim. Seyffart emphasized that no ETF will be approved for XRP until the legal uncertainties are settled.
Regulatory Shifts and Potential Impact
While legal challenges remain clouded, the chances for XRP ETF approval may improve as the SEC continues refining its digital assets approach. Under the leadership of Commissioner Hester Peirce and the newly formed Crypto Task Force, the SEC aims to address the complex issues surrounding the classification of securities and commodities.
However, the task force is expected to clarify regulatory aspects related to cryptocurrency products by the end of 2025, probably paving the way for smoother approval processes for future ETF applications.
