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- Whale dominance has declined, giving retail traders a larger share of Bitcoin futures market activity.
- Institutional players appear to be holding positions or awaiting better re-entry opportunities.
The latest on-chain analysis from ShayanMarkets on CryptoQuant reveals that the dynamics of the Bitcoin futures market are shifting.
From late 2024 to early 2025, the market was characterized by yellow and green “clusters” that indicated massive whale activity. These massive capital inflows often triggered sharp bullish rallies. However, since the second quarter of 2025, the landscape has begun to change.
Instead of being dominated by large orders, recent data shows the emergence of more red “clusters.” This indicates that small orders—typical of retail traders—are taking up an increasingly large share.
This change is quite interesting because, historically, prolonged whale dominance near price peaks often marks a distribution phase. Now, with the reduction in selling activity from large players, the opportunity for BTC to break through its all-time high in the coming weeks is wide open.
Bitcoin Retail Trader Activity Increases, Whales More Passive
ShayanMarkets believes that whales are likely holding onto old positions purchased at low prices or choosing to wait for a more strategic entry moment. On the other hand, the increasing role of retail traders has contributed to the now more optimistic market sentiment.
In fact, amid these conditions, derivatives data from CoinGlass shows a notable surge in activity. Trading volume surged 57.14% to $99.92 billion, open interest rose 4.75% to $82.65 billion, and BTC options volume exploded 327.81% to $8.11 billion.
Furthermore, CNF previously reported that Bitcoin is currently slightly below its record high. This boost is due to a combination of loose monetary policy and crypto-friendly political moves.
One such move is Donald Trump’s policy of allowing crypto assets, including BTC, into 401(k) retirement plans. If this policy is widely implemented, the potential for retirement capital inflows into Bitcoin could be substantial.
Global Ownership Map and Breakout Potential
In terms of ownership distribution, our previous report highlighted that the United States holds 7.8 million BTC, or approximately 40% of the total global supply.
This ownership is largely held by large institutions, either through public companies, ETFs, or government entities. Meanwhile, India ranks second with 1 million BTC, dominated by retail owners despite relatively weak regulations in the country.
This situation provides an interesting insight: the global Bitcoin market is driven not only by a handful of institutions, but also by a large retail user base in developing countries.
However, the crypto market is never free from uncertainty. If whales decide to sell a large portion of their holdings in a short period of time, sentiment could shift drastically. However, as long as selling pressure from large investors remains low, the opportunity for BTC to break its all-time high appears more likely than it did a few months ago.
Meanwhile, as of press time, BTC is changing hands at about $120,656.10, up 2.06% over the last 24 hours and 5.51% over the last 7 days.
