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- Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to disappoint in the third quarter of the year as historical data shows an average return of 6%.
- However, Ethereum (ETH) could move in the opposite direction as money begins to flow from both retail and institutional investors.
Bitcoin (BTC) has been predicted to face its major bearish test in the third quarter of 2025 (Q3 2025) as historical data points out a very serious pullback which could defeat the anticipation of an upcoming bull run.
According to the information first disclosed by Derive head of research Dr Sean Dawson, the third quarter of each year has been one of the worst periods for Bitcoin since 2013, with an average return of just 6.03%. Conversely, the 4th quarter has produced an average return of 85.42%.
Fascinatingly, this year’s third quarter may not be any different as the Federal Reserve strengthens its commitment to not succumb to any pressure to cut rates. According to Dawson, keeping the interest rate steady could significantly affect the expectation of Bitcoin to record a massive return.
Meanwhile, a recent survey by CME’s FedWatch tool suggests that 99% of the market participants expect the Fed to keep the rates at 4.25% to 4.50%.
More About the BTC’s Historic Behaviour
Confirming this extensive market stagnation, Santiment analyst Brian Quinlivan hinted that there has been an anticipation of Bitcoin’s next bull run across social media. To him, this growing sentiment means nothing in determining the next market direction. In fact, Quinlivan believes that this is a major red flag since the market has mostly moved in the opposite direction of retail expectations.
…this usually is a sign that we aren’t quite ready for another bullish surge yet.
Above all, he also does not think the market is that far from a breakout, just as highlighted in a recent CNF blog post. According to Quinlivan, the market has been recently close to a breakout, but has faced multiple rejections with traders becoming impatient. Basically, a significant fall in sentiment could actually propel Bitcoin above its all-time high.
It wouldn’t be surprising if we do break through very soon after we see a few frustrating ‘close calls’ that cause small traders to turn sour and impatient on BTC, neutralising this level of optimism.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis
Currently, Bitcoin is up by 3.3% in the last seven days and is trading at $109.3k. On its monthly price chart, the asset has also surged by 4.7% in the last 30 days.
Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has just reached the greed territory, suggesting a rising momentum. According to our recent analysis, the asset could reach a minimum of $126k before the end of the year. However, it would first have to hold above the current level as mentioned in our previous news story.
While Bitcoin could disappoint in the Q3 2025, Quinlivan believes that Ethereum could record an impressive run as more Institutional and retail interest emerges. As earlier indicated in our news coverage, BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) has, for instance, recorded an inflow of $281.3 million in just a week.
More and more eyes have turned to Ethereum. (It) has been playing catch-up since markets began their recovery in mid-April.
