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- Polymarket predicts an 85% chance of SEC approval for Solana ETFs by the end of 2025.
- Regulatory challenges persist as SOL is classified as a security, but optimism grows with SEC leadership changes.
Polymarket bettors now estimate an 85% probability that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve spot Solana (SOL) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the end of 2025. The chances increased from 45% to over 80% within two days. However, there is still some doubt as to when exactly it will happen and whether it will be approved before the end of Q1.
Another poll conducted in November 2024 indicates that there is a 57% chance of approval by July 31, compared to 70% earlier this week. This is a result of varying trader sentiment, which has been affected by the regulatory landscape and the SEC’s stance towards altcoin-based ETFs.
Major Players File for Solana ETF
As Crypto News Flash reported Grayscale, VanEck, 21Shares, Bitwise, and Canary Capital have also filed applications for Solana spot ETFs. Despite the high market demand, these applications have some risks coming from the SEC’s focus on Solana (SOL).
While SOL’s legal standing has not yet been established, the SEC has sued Binance and Coinbase for offering it as a security. Such accusations make it even more challenging to gain regulators’ approval to evaluate compliance and other risks to the cryptocurrency market.
Reports from early December suggest possible drawbacks. Two of the five applicants were said to have been told that they may not be approved because of opposition from the outgoing SEC chair. However, three applications from Bitwise, Canary Capital, and 21Shares are still pending, leaving room for optimism.
A major shift in leadership at the SEC is likely to affect the approval process. Paul Atkins, a former commissioner who held a pro-crypto stance, is expected to become the new SEC chief after Gensler. This change offers a renewed expectation for positive crypto policies, especially on ETFs.
The president of The ETF Store, Nate Geraci, said that there is a high chance that Solana ETFs will be approved due to the growing institutional interest. He further stated that there will be possible policy changes under new leadership.
In August 2024, the first Solana ETF was approved in Brazil. This caused the demand for Solana to rise, with the price per token rising to $230 by December 11 as traders waited for the launch of the mainnet.
What is The Fate of the Other Altcoin ETFs?
The expected approval of a Solana ETF is part of a general trend in the market that shows an increasing acceptance of Crypto investment products. Asset managers have submitted applications to list more altcoin ETFs for Litecoin, Hedera, and XRP.
In the US, the structure of crypto ETFs has been associated mainly with Bitcoin and Ethereum grantor trusts that only hold a single commodity. According to industry experts, the regulatory landscape is expected to be less restrictive in 2025.
According to Polymarket, a popular cryptocurrency prediction market, trading volume reached $1.9 billion in December alone. The platform has built credibility in its approach to forecasting, given that it used data analytics to predict the 2024 US elections. This is because the platform successfully predicted Donald Trump’s win and his party’s dominance.
