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- Exchange inflow spikes often precede market shifts, signaling key behavioral changes among XRP’s largest holders.
- Whale-sized XRP transfers suggest ongoing distribution, hinting at cautious sentiment despite broader bullish momentum.
After rallying to around $3.5–$4 in early 2025, the XRP token now appears to be faltering. On-chain analyst PelinayPA revealed interesting data on CryptoQuant: a surge in XRP inflows to exchanges has been occurring in large amounts, particularly from whales who have sent more than 100,000 XRP to exchanges.
For those who have been following the market for a while, this pattern is familiar—it happened in 2018, 2021, and 2023 as well. Each price peak is always preceded by a large wave of inflows, a classic signal that investors are preparing to take profits.
And now, the wave is back. Inflows remain high, even as the XRP price has calmed down. This is what raises suspicion. If the price remains stagnant but coins are flowing rapidly to exchanges, it could mean that major players are slowly unwinding their positions.
There hasn’t been any panic selling yet, but selling pressure is starting to strengthen. PelinayPA stated that a short-term correction towards the support at $2.8–$3 is very likely. However, if the $3 level can hold strong, there is a new opportunity for further upside.
Derivatives Market Flashing Caution Despite Retail Optimism
On the other hand, the derivatives market is also sending uneasy signals. The latest data from CoinGlass shows that XRP trading volume fell 3.53% to $11 billion. Open interest also dropped 4.84% to $7.83 billion. XRP options volume even plummeted by more than 54%.
This decline indicates that traders are starting to reduce exposure, either out of caution or because they are waiting for a clearer signal.
Interestingly, the long/short ratio on Binance for the XRP/USDT pair has actually jumped to 3.3764. This indicates that many retail traders are still hoping for a price increase. But as always, when there are too many longs, the market can move in the opposite direction. And that’s nothing new in the crypto world.
Meanwhile, at the time of writing, data from CoinMarketCap showed that XRP had fallen 1.78% in the past 24 hours to $2.91, following the overall crypto market decline of 2.42%.
It’s not a huge number, but it’s enough to make many traders cautious—especially when inflows to exchanges remain high.
XRP’s Long-Term Outlook Fueled by ETF Buzz and Bank Targets
Despite short-term pressure, fundamental news still offers a glimmer of optimism. CNF reports that Standard Chartered has set an ambitious price target for XRP of $12.5 by 2028.
This projection is based on three main factors: regulatory clarity, potential ETF approval, and Ripple’s expanding role in the global payment system.
We also previously highlighted that the XRP ETF application caused a stir. At the time, the probability of approval soared to nearly 85%. The two most aggressively touted ETFs, Teucrium and ProShares, have already amassed hundreds of millions of dollars in assets. This shows that institutional demand for XRP isn’t just wishful thinking.
However, the road to an ETF hasn’t been easy. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has postponed its decision on seven XRP ETF proposals, including those from Grayscale and Franklin Templeton, until October 2025. This despite the Ripple legal case being concluded and the outcome clear.
Meanwhile, on-chain analyst Ali Martinez remains positive on XRP. He believes it won’t take long before XRP is back at $3.70!
In the end, all eyes are on the $3 level. If this level breaks, the correction could deepen. But if it holds, who knows, we might see a new rally.
