- Kristalina Georgieva (a top-level IMF executive) warns of an impending economic recession affecting more than 33 percent of the global economies.
- It is worth noting that there is no historical data to compare Bitcoin and the crypto market’s performance during a recession, as they have never traded in such periods.
While the consequences of the FTX crash are still ravaging the Bitcoin and crypto markets, Kristalina Georgieva (a top-level IMF executive) has warned of an impending economic recession affecting more than 33 percent of the global economies. In a recent interview, the IMF executive predicted a problematic 2023 for economies worldwide.
According to Georgieva, the current slowdown in China’s economic growth is a massive threat to other economies. She also predicted a slowdown in the economies of the top two growth engines (Europe and the US).
The slowdown in economic growth
She further stated;
China’s economic growth this year will drop below other global economies, a first in 40 years. Also, the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war is proof of an imminent slowdown in EU’s economic growth.
Georgieva also predicted a difficult year for emerging economies, saying the slowdown in top economies will have a substantial negative impact on these emerging markets.
She opines that 2023 will be more challenging than 2022 in all aspects of economic growth. The IMF chief added that 50 percent of the EU will be in recession this year. However, the US’ resilient economy will help it avoid a recession. She cited the strong labor market of the US as a reference for the nation’s strong economic resilience.
Georgieva argued that the strong labor market is a mixed blessing as it means that the fed will continue to tighten interest rates to curtail inflation. Hence, the US labor market data would be a crucial deciding factor when the US central bank meets to justify a pivot, as it has done in the last FOMC meetings. It is worth mentioning that much of the critical data on the labor market will be out in the next week, while the next inflation data will be out by January 12, 2023.
2023 IMF PREDICTION: “We expect one-third of the world economy to be in recession,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva tells @margbrennan. But, a strong U.S. labor market might help the world get through a difficult year, she says. pic.twitter.com/Vbhj478pFo
— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) January 1, 2023
The implications for the crypto market
There is a need to clearly understand Georgieva’s predictions on the crypto market, particularly the Bitcoin market, if they become a reality. Bitcoin didn’t fulfill its promise of being an inflation hedge last year, losing about 65 percent of its year-to-date (YTD) performance. By comparison, another acclaimed inflation hedge, gold, lost 1 percent in its YTD performance.
However, it is worth noting that there is no historical data to compare Bitcoin and the crypto market’s performance during a recession, as they have never traded in such periods. In addition, likely, retail investors won’t invest in BTC since they are also suffering the effects of the global economic downturn.
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However, these events might give Bitcoin a chance to prove itself as a true inflation hedge due to its supply cap, which is limited to 21 million. Hence, the real question is, will Bitcoin have the more significant share of the purchasing power during a recession, or will it be its rival, gold? Meanwhile, BTC is down 0.3 percent in the last 24 hours and trades at $16,705, per current data.