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- Hash Ribbons indicator signals a potential long-term buy opportunity despite short-term miner stress.
- Retail investor activity is declining while institutional wallets continue steady accumulation.
A buy signal has just emerged from the classic Hash Ribbons indicator, and for those who have been around Bitcoin for a while, this could be a moment to watch.
According to on-chain analyst Darkfost of CryptoQuant, the indicator is actually quite simple: it compares the 30-day and 60-day moving averages of Bitcoin’s mining hashrate. When the hashrate drops sharply and then starts to recover, it’s usually a sign that selling pressure from miners is easing.
Interestingly, the signal also just hit a new all-time high when this signal appeared. This means that the mining network is in strong shape, but at the same time it could also be an indication that some miners are struggling due to rising operating costs. When profits dwindle, smaller miners often sell their Bitcoin in order to pay for electricity and equipment rent.
Now, these forced selling moments from miners often open up long-term buying opportunities. Hash Ribbons have historically been quite accurate in predicting good entry points—aside from the 2021 mining ban in China. So for those who like to “buy the dip,” this signal could be a breath of fresh air, if a little bitter at first.
Retail Interest in Bitcoin Fades Despite Buy Signals
On the other hand, the latest analysis from another on-chain analyst, Burak Kesmeci, shows a somewhat opposite condition. Although technical signals such as Hash Ribbons give positive clues, his data actually shows a decrease in interest from retail investors. After Bitcoin peaked at $111,000 on May 22, the price corrected slightly to around $104,000. The correction was not very deep, but the impact was felt.
Retail transaction volume—which includes transfers between $0 and $10,000—fell from $423 million to $408 million. That’s a small decrease in nominal terms, but if we look at the 30-day trend, the retail demand index fell from +5 to -0.11 points.
This means that those who usually react the fastest to price movements are starting to be passive. Maybe they are waiting and seeing. Or maybe the trauma from the previous decline is still lingering?
Burak said that short-term investors are very reactive to price corrections, even when the decline is not too big. Ironically, it is in situations like this that buy signals emerge. So while large institutions may still be quietly adding to their positions, retail power—which is usually the trigger for euphoria in a bull run—has yet to truly return to the battlefield.
Loose Liquidity, Confidence Still Limited
Furthermore, a report from CNF noted that more than $1 billion of stablecoins left Binance in early June. This movement has made the atmosphere even more calm because loose liquidity usually makes price movements less powerful.
Long-term holders also appear to be reducing their exposure. Maybe they are rotating, or just taking profits. But interestingly, medium-sized wallets are still accumulating when the market is hesitant.
If we compare it to real life, this is like a situation where a famous restaurant is having a big discount, but customers are still quiet because the weather is gloomy and people are not sure about going out. Even though the food is cheap.
Meanwhile, as of press time, BTC is changing hands at about $104,621.29, down 1.10% over the last 24 hours and 3.72% over the last 7 days.
So even though Hash Ribbons are saying, “Buy now,” the on-chain macro conditions are saying, “Wait a minute, retail hasn’t come back.” For those who believe in the history of Hash Ribbons, this could be a good time to jump in. But for those who prefer signals from crowd behavior, waiting until retail volume picks up again might be a more sober move.
Finally, the buy signal from the network may still be valid, but if the small wallets are still sleeping, the question is, who is going to push the market up?
