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- Arthur Hayes says the Israeli-Palestine war will lead to an implosion in safe assets like treasury bonds, and investors will flee to BTC, XRP, Ether and other crypto.
- He predicted BTC would hit $1 million in this post-war world, and if XRP were to record such gains, it would hit $16.
Since Hamas’ surprise attack on the Israelis on October 7, the two nations have been embroiled in a war that’s now approaching 10,000 fatalities. While unfortunate, the war could be the catalyst for the sharpest spike in crypto prices in history, believes industry veteran Arthur Hayes.
In a recent blog post, Hayes discussed how the war will impact global financial markets as people lose faith in traditionally safe assets. According to the BitMEX founder and ex-CEO, the conflict will trigger “global wartime inflation” that could push BTC to $1 million.
The bond vigilantes are yelling “down with the dollar.”
Look out for my spicy essay “The Periphery” dropping this week where I discuss the Hamas vs. Israel war, the US Treasury market, and $BTC.
YCC = $1mm $BTC is in full effect.
Yachtzee!!! pic.twitter.com/1ABcW1esaf
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) October 23, 2023
Hayes says that “America’s military budget is set to truly explode” to cater to the Israel-Hamas war. The US is also deeply involved in the Russo-Ukraine war, further depleting its resources. And if the Afghanistan war cost the country over $8 trillion, the Israeli war could double the amount, especially if other adversaries like China and Russia join opposing sides.
This will increase future government borrowing, and the sky’s the limit when it comes to the sums of capital a war can waste. Therefore, bonds are selling off and yields are rising on a future expectation of the expanded US expenditures on peripheral wars.
The US capital market will hold steady for now, but it can only hold for so long before it implodes, Hayes believes.
“Once everyone realises the game we are playing, the Bitcoin and crypto bull market will be in full swing,” he added.
“This is the trigger, and it’s time to start rotating out of short-term US Treasury bills and into crypto. The first stop is always Bitcoin, then Ether,” and then the other tokens will catch up.
To hit $1 million, BTC would need to surge by 2,700%, and if the other tokens follow suit, XRP would hit $16.
