- Fundstrat Global Advisors LLC research reviews Bitcoin’s historical performance and predicts a 193% increase to a price of $17,000 in the next 6 months after halving.
- Fundstrat sees other positive factors for Bitcoin: US dollar inflation, bullish market sentiment, reduced BTC supply.
In a note to their clients, written on April 30, researchers from Fundstrat Global Advisors LLC reviewed a 10-year sample of Bitcoin behavior in market situations similar to the present one. The first cryptocurrency by market capitalization had its third biggest price rally in one day on April 28 in this year.
After staying below the $8,000 mark, BTC went up to $8,800 in less than 24 hours. The cryptocurrency peaked at $9,500. At the time of publication, BTC trades at $8,821 with gains of 0.10% in the last 24 hours.
Bullish outlook after Bitcoin’s halving
According to Fundstrat researchers BTC crossed the 200-day moving average at $8,897. Researchers have concluded that historically, when BTC behaves in this way, the next 6 months show gains of 193%.
In addition, there are a number of factors that contribute to the Fundstrat researchers’ upward prediction. Firstly, the bullish sentiment that seems to prevail in the market due to the pre-Bitcoin halving expectation. This is reflected in the opinion of several analysts, such as Joe DiPasquale, CEO of BitBull Capital:
Historically, reward halvings have resulted in significant price appreciation since they reduce Bitcoin’s supply, which pushes the price higher. The market sentiment is also positive leading up to the event.
Mati Greenspan shares the opinion of BitBull Capital’s CEO. The analyst has confessed on Twitter that he suffers from fear of missing out (“FOMO”) on the investment opportunity:
Call it FOMO, call it blind faith, or even stupidity, IDC. My etoro account is now 100% allocated to BTC.
DiPasquale adds that Bitcoin’s rise will also be driven by the steps the U.S. Federal Reserve has taken to try to mitigate the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. DiPasquale said:
That, combined with expected inflation in the long-term for the U.S. dollar due to recent quantitative easing, is being credited with today’s surge.
Other analysts and crypto personalities have been bullish under the current circumstances. Mike Novogratz has declared 2020 as the “year of Bitcoin”. Novogratz expects double-digit gains before the end of the year. Three Arrows Capital’s CEO, Su Zhu, said that the halving will bring a supply shock in Bitcoin that will boost the price of BTC in the months ahead. Finally, Fundstrat researchers leave open a possibility in which Bitcoin may suffer a blow from traditional financial institutions:
If crypto doesn’t face regulatory/Congressional backlash, there are better odds for a positive outcome.