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- Despite the delay of the spot XRP ETF, market sentiment remains optimistic, with Polymarket showing an 81% chance of approval by year-end.
- Technical analysts highlight long-term bullish prospects, with XRP currently around $2.92 and potential upside targets exceeding previous all-time highs.
XRP’s recent decline in the market has sparked a lot of concerns as it is down by more than 12% in the last month due to weaker liquidity and greater prudence among institutional actors.
The decline follows the SEC announcing that it would extend its review of the proposed spot XRP ETFs, with a decision now expected towards the end of October 2025, as mentioned in our previous story. However, the game’s not over yet as market participants are eyeing an approval soon.
XRP ETF Approval Odds Stand Strong Despite SEC Delay
The backlog has shaken traders, though there is still hope left. Ethereum-based betting site Polymarket displays an 81% chance that XRP ETFs will be approved by the end of the year, indicating that the SEC is indeed nearing a breakthrough. As market observers noted, the prudent assessment is akin to how the agency has treated other Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in the past, which were the subject of procedural extensions that eventually bore fruit.
Applications from several major players in asset management, including Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, 21Shares, WisdomTree, and Bitwise, are still under consideration. The weight of their filings demonstrates an increasingly fierce effort by Wall Street institutions to capitalize on the exceptional retail and institutional appetite in structured XRP products.
Thus, the estimated inflows that could be brought on by approval amounted to as high as $8 billion dollars beforehand, realigning the market that surrounds one of the most followed altcoins. Nonetheless, the recent SEC roadblock has had visible ripple effects.
Banks are reluctant to commit to large-scale positions as their order books are being thinned out with the pressure building on liquidity. This uncertainty has prompted more intense rotation into smaller-cap digital assets, which deliver faster returns.
To further complicate price action, a large $470 million sale of XRP had further dulled price action to add to short-term volatility.
Analysts Predict Major XRP Surge
However, even amid this context, technical speculators continue to eye the long-term charting of XRP. Market commentator EGRAG Crypto emphasized the advances made by the asset on the way to exceeding its initial two-month candle above the price of $2, which the strategist says may precondition new price discovery.
According to his chart projections, the pair can be headed towards upside targets far above the all-time high of $3.84. Further, Fibonacci levels show that they might even shoot to highs above $8, $13, and $27 in the ongoing cycle. At the moment, XRP price is around $2.92 and remains close to the psychological resistance of $3, as reported by CNF.
Analysts expect that, though the SEC’s extended timeline injects a certain measure of uncertainty in the near term, there is a growing consensus among investors that the regulatory clarity is only a matter of time. The next several weeks to the October deadline will continue to be monitored as traders observe whether the latest pullback is a sign of weakness or a precursor to one of XRP’s most important breakouts.
