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- Dogecoin momentum signals 1900% potential driven by smart money and exchange outflows.
- Retail activity remains neutral, suggesting further room for growth in DOGE’s long-term outlook.
Dogecoin (DOGE) is back in the spotlight after analyst Javon Marks issued a bold outlook. He believes that, based on the pattern of the previous two cycles, DOGE has the potential to skyrocket nearly 20x from its current level. If this projection proves true, the price could break above $5.30, or around 1,900% from its current position.
More recently, Marks predicts a rise of at least 730% to reach $2.28. This calculation has certainly made many investors re-examine one of the most popular memecoins in the crypto world.
Derivatives Contrast With Spot Outflows
Despite the attractive long-term projections, DOGE’s journey in recent days has not been entirely smooth. The latest price is recorded at about $0.2396, down 10.86% in 24 hours.
However, looking back, over the past 30 days, the decline was only 0.47%. Furthermore, over the past 90 days, it has actually surged by 45.68%. So, despite the sharp daily volatility, its intermediate trend still shows some appeal.
In the derivatives market, CoinGlass data shows an interesting contrast. Trading volume surged 193.93% to $10.15 billion. However, open interest actually decreased 16.27% to $4.37 billion. Options volume also fell 19.67% to just $1,200.
Even so, the long/short account ratio on Binance for the DOGE/USDT pair reached 3.6707. This figure indicates that more traders are opening buy positions than sell positions. It could be argued that DOGE still has room to move upwards.
On the other hand, the spot market showed a quite striking outflow of funds. DOGE recorded a negative netflow of $29.65 million, indicating more tokens being withdrawn from the exchange. At the time of this data, the DOGE price was at $0.26682.
Usually, large outflows are seen as a sign that investors are choosing to hold their funds in personal wallets. Furthermore, a reduction in supply on exchanges is often interpreted as a potential medium-term gain. However, this move could still cause short-term price fluctuations.
Smart Money Drives Dogecoin While Retail Waits
Besides Marks, analyst Burak Kesmeci also offered an interesting perspective. He highlighted the Futures Retail Activity metric, which measures retail investor enthusiasm.
Historically, whenever this metric heats up, DOGE’s price spikes sharply, but is always followed by a major correction. For example, in May 2021, DOGE reached $0.69 before plummeting. Then, in November 2022, it rose to $0.14 but then fell to $0.06.
The same thing happened at the end of 2024, when the price broke through $0.46 and then fell back to $0.14. Currently, this indicator is in the neutral zone, indicating that there is no “retail euphoria” yet.
In other words, DOGE’s current movement is largely driven by smart money. If that’s the case, the market still has a long way to go before retail really starts to rally.
CNF also highlighted another opportunity. According to the quoted analyst, DOGE could surge more than 100% to $0.45 as long as it can stay above the key $0.20 level. This threshold is said to be important to ensure the uptrend does not lose its momentum.
