- Dogecoin ETF approval odds on Polymarket are pegged at 36%.
- The Donald Trump presidency might change the dynamics and a potential DOGE ETF.
Dogecoin (DOGE) has demonstrated an impressive performance since the start of 2025. DOGE, the world’s largest memecoin, hit a new All-Time High (ATH) of $ 0.480553 in the current market cycle.
With Donald Trump’s inauguration only a few days away, there are rising speculations regarding approvals of a DOGE Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF).
Odds of a Dogecoin ETF in 2025
As previously mentioned in our report, the approvals of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs opened opportunities for other popular crypto ETFs. The price of both BTC and ETH surged substantially in 2024 due to huge inflows in their ETF market.
Many DOGE community members think an ETF based on the memecoin could also push the price towards an uptrend. Previously, we explored in our earlier report that Grayscale, a popular asset investment manager, announced plans to expand its investment offerings in Dogecoin.
Analysts believe a DOGE ETF launch in 2025 is right on track, considering its impact on the token’s price, adoption, and high demand. However, the odds of a DOGE ETF happening are quite low, according to Polymarket’s statistics.
Recent data from Polymarket shows the probability of a DOGE ETF approval in 2025 is only 36%. However, XRP ETF approval odds sit at 70%, as CNF discussed earlier. The probability of their approval is high, given the market’s preference for utility-based assets.
The Polymarket odds before July are even lower, sitting at 27%. Many firms have even applied for the XRP ETF listing despite last year’s unfavorable launch odds.
On the other hand, the DOGE ETF perspective is quite different due to its performance and characteristics. Although DOGE is widely popular, it has several drawbacks, such as high volatility and lack of inherent utility.
Moreover, a few analysts have asserted that a DOGE ETF launch is risky.
Why DOGE ETF Could Launch in 2025
While investors and analysts have offered interesting insights, the final decision lies in the hands of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). For now, the regulatory body has yet to comment on the matter.
Nonetheless, analysts believe the emergence of a pro-crypto government under Donald Trump will result in the establishment of favorable regulations. Trump persistently supported crypto during his campaign.
Following his election victory, the President-elect appointed tech billionaire Elon Musk as head of the Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.). Many see Musk’s appointment as a great opportunity for Dogecoin to become a government-backed coin. If this speculation eventually comes through, then a DOGE ETF approval will likely become a matter of when.
Dogecoin is on a bullish trajectory, gaining 8,2% in the last 24 hours to trade at $0.4133. The surge has pushed the market cap to over $61 billion, making DOGE the seventh-biggest crypto in Marketcap’s hierarchy.
Onchain analyst Ali Martinez believes Dogecoin’s price could hit $20 in the coming years if it continues its ongoing trend. While this target seems impossible, a potential ETF approval may propel the price towards the mark.
