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- The first two weeks of October have been a whirlwind with the US Government shutdown, Trump Tariffs, and the UK lifting crypto bans.
- A high-stakes week awaits as traders position for Powell’s speech, PPI reports, and job market data.
The crypto market is still trying to find its footing after a massive liquidation last week. Around $20 billion in positions were wiped out in just hours after President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports that will begin on November 1. Bitcoin plunged dangerously close to the $100,000 mark on October 10 before bouncing back to around $104,000.
Today, Bitcoin has increased by approximately 3% in the past 24 hours and is now trading at around $114,988. Trading volume has also increased by 24%, suggesting that some investors may be re-entering the market after the recent market chaos.
Key Speeches
The Federal Reserve has some of its top officials set to speak on October 15 and 16. More than eight Fed governors and presidents, including Michelle Bowman, Christopher Waller, Stephen Miran, and Tom Barkin, are scheduled to share their views on the economy and monetary policy.
Additionally, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a keynote address at the NABE annual meeting in Philadelphia, where further updates on tariffs may also emerge.
In September, the Fed made a notable move by cutting interest rates by 25 basis points, which has already drained around $2.5 trillion from its Reverse Repo Program. To the community, this was a sign that the central bank is shifting toward a more accommodative stance.
The next policy meeting is set for October 28–29. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, markets are widely expecting another quarter-point rate cut, bringing the federal funds rate down to a range between 3.75% and 4%.
The Beige Book
The Federal Reserve System’s Beige Book, officially called “Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District,” is one of the most closely watched reports on the economy. It is released eight times a year, and it offers a raw, on-the-ground look at how different parts of the country are doing economically.
This release is particularly important because it may be one of the few clear windows into real economic conditions during the ongoing government shutdown. The last report, published on September 3, captured economic activity from July and early August.
US PPI
The Producer Price Index (PPI), which tracks changes in the prices manufacturers receive for their goods, will be released on the 16th of October. The most recent figures revealed that the PPI slipped by 0.1% in September, coming after a downwardly revised 0.7% jump in July. Despite the monthly decline, the index rose 2.6% compared to the same period.
The Federal Reserve System was also anticipating an update from the September Consumer Price Index on October 15. However, with the shutdown still in effect, that release will likely be delayed.
Initial Jobless Claims
The Initial Jobless Claims report is usually released every Thursday. It tracks the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time during the week, offering one of the earliest snapshots of the U.S. labor market.
The government shutdown, now entering its second week, has put official economic data releases on hold, adding even more uncertainty to an already fragile economic picture. The labor market appears to be caught in a rare “no firing, no hiring” limbo, where businesses are largely maintaining their current workforce instead of making changes.
For the week ending October 4, initial claims rose to a seasonally adjusted 235,000, up from 224,000 the previous week. What’s especially concerning is that this is happening at a time when both inflation and the job market are showing signs of strain, creating a challenging environment for policymakers and investors.
