- Glassnode warns of potential demand exhaustion and profit-taking for Bitcoin, similar to past cycles where high profitability preceded price corrections.
- Analysts remain bullish on BTC, with predictions of a breakout from its multi-year channel, with technical targets ranging from $140,000 to $200,000.
Bitcoin price stands strong as it holds above 106,000 and on-chain data shows increasing bullish signals but warns of a possible correction in the short term. The latest data reveals a sharp increase in the percentage of Bitcoin supply held in profit, raising market expectations for an explosive rally while stirring caution among analysts tracking historical patterns.
Will Bitcoin Price Hit $200,000 Soon?
On-chain analytics platform Glassnode estimates that nearly 96.7% of circulating Bitcoin is currently in profit, a notable climb from 87% just over a week earlier. The spike follows a historical pattern experienced in the past market cycles of an above-average level of profitability being accompanied by a spell of price instability. Furthermore, as reported by CNF, the Bitcoin whale distribution is on the rise.
For example, in January this year, the percentage of profitable supply was up to 98.8%, which is the highest record that was immediately followed by a market pullback from $109,000 to $74,000. The rise in profit-taking potential is also mirrored in Bitcoin’s realized profit/loss ratio, which now stands at 2.8, a dramatic jump from 1.1 recorded on June 22. This indicator has now climbed above the high-risk band mark of 2.4, indicating a high realized profit by the people holding it.
It “reflects strong market confidence,” Glassnode stated in its latest Weekly Market Pulse. However, they noted that “it hints at heightened risk of profit-taking and demand exhaustion if price momentum falls.” The report emphasized that the current cycle is marked by what it calls a “cautiously optimistic regime.” This phenomenon is partly brought about by more institutional involvement as well as a renewed taste of accumulation.
Furthermore, market analysts are convinced that Bitcoin is in the process of breaching an old technical pattern. A technical strategist, Stockmoney Lizards, stressed on social media that Bitcoin is “about to break out of a multi-year channel” with a price target of $140,000 in sight in the short term. It also mentioned the same post referring to a long-term goal of $200,000 at the end of the year because of higher highs and higher lows of the weekly charts.
Analysts Stay Bullish On BTC
Other analysts are also doubling down on such optimistic predictions. Mags, a commentator, identified the 2.618 Fibonacci extension level at $155,000 as a potential short-term target if Bitcoin successfully clears the resistance trendline, as mentioned in our previous story. “The breakout above the same upper trendline could trigger a massive bull run,” Mags posted.
Meanwhile, popular institutional analysts have upscaled BTC price targets. Co-founder of 21st Capital, Sina, believes that Bitcoin price may reach anywhere between $130,000 and $200,000 by Q4 2025, drawing on a power law valuation model.
Further, Bernstein Research explained that Spot Bitcoin ETFs and the involvement of corporate treasury is likely to put Bitcoin at $200,000 by the end of the coming year. Likewise, Bitwise Investments said that a weak US Dollar Index, possibly influenced by the trade policies of President Donald Trump, could act as a macroeconomic trigger for Bitcoin price to rise further.
