- Despite Bitcoin trading above $107,000, LTHs are averaging realized profits of 220%, still below the 300–350% levels seen in March and December 2024.
- Bernstein analysts forecast Bitcoin reaching $135,000 by Q3 2025, aligning with the $140K profit threshold long-term holders are targeting.
Bitcoin (BTC) long-term holders (LTHs) may need to wait until the price reaches $140,000 to recapture the peak profit margins experienced earlier in the current bull cycle, according to the latest data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant.
Bitcoin Faces Sell Pressure From Long-term Holders
The report points out that in recent times, Bitcoin price has touched new record highs, around $107,493, at press time, but the selling pressure from long-term investors has been quite high. These long-term holders, those who have not sold their Bitcoin for six months or more, are the primary cause of the recent pressure in profit taking, as highlighted in the previous story.
CryptoQuant researcher Darkfost studied how profitable such investors would be via the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) gauge. MVRV contrasts the market capitalization of Bitcoin to the total worth of the last noted transactions of coins, representing an indicator of profitable gains.
As the results reveal, the reality of the average realized profit of LTHs at the moment is around 220 percent. While this may appear substantial, the report suggests it’s considerably below the peaks seen earlier in the bull market. “The figure ‘may seem high for BTC,’ but in March and December 2024, the average realized profits among LTH were around 300% and 350%, respectively,” Darkfost noted in a QuickTake blog entry.
The numbers also depict that the realized price, which is the average purchase price of the long-term holders, is around $33,800. At this level, despite BTC trading above $107,000, these investors have yet to experience the same magnitude of gains they witnessed at prior cycle tops.
“Although these profits may seem substantial, we’re still far from the levels observed during the tops of this cycle,” Darkfost stated. He added that we are still far from successfully beating earlier profit limits, for which he believes that a rally to $140,000 or more is required. He described this target as a “market magnet” capable of pulling BTC upward as investors seek to reach familiar profitability zones..
Market Sentiment Around Bitcoin
The market sentiment is in accordance with Darkfrost’s forecast. Technical structures also point to upcoming upward trends as other analysts indicate. Market commentator Rekt Capital stated in a recent X post that Bitcoin is trying to break out of a downtrend that started in mid-May.
He said that the existing behavior of Bitcoin price in a retest phase after a breakout further supports the narrative that the bull cycle is still running, as reported by CNF.
Investors are still optimistic, with the majority of the BTC owners incurring large unused gains. By the end of June, on-chain data pegged these paper profits to about $2.5 trillion, which implies that the overall market remains in a strong position to support further upward momentum. Also, Bernstein analysts expect Bitcoin price to $135,000 in the third quarter of 2025, very close to the $140K target that long-term BTC holders are targeting.
