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- Bitcoin has fallen by 7% to $76,588, dropping below the $80,000 support level, while the Fear and Greed Index hit a record low of 4, indicating extreme market fear.
- This is the outcome of Liberation Day, when Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs sparked sharp declines in the markets, with even more tariffs expected later this week.
Bitcoin has been facing some turbulence recently, struggling to recover after its price dipped below key support levels of $80,000 and even $75,000. This marks a notable loss, with the market showing volatility reminiscent of 2021’s turbulence, as well as past crashes like Black Monday in 1987 and the COVID-19 market crash of 2020.
Recent data from Coinglass reveals that $1.2 billion in long positions were liquidated over just 24 hours while open interest in Bitcoin futures decreased by 3.91%, dropping to $51.36 billion. This is an indication that investors are losing confidence or shifting their strategies. As the market grapples with these uncertainties, here are 5 Bitcoin signals to keep an eye on this week.
Black Monday 1987 & COVID-19 Crash
Market analysts are drawing comparisons between current conditions and some of the most significant financial crashes in history. In a post on X, Bitcoin analyst Michaël van de Poppe pointed out a trend: “A 10% dip in two consecutive days has only happened for the fourth time in history, October 1987, October 2008, March 2020, and now April 2025. In 1987 & 2020, it marked the bottom. In 2008, it took one more month to mark the bottom.”
On Black Monday, October 19, 1987, the Dow Jones plunged 22% in a single day, driven largely by automated trading and macroeconomic events. Similarly, during the March 2020 COVID-19 crash, a liquidity crisis caused Bitcoin’s price to drop by 50% as markets faced massive sell-offs.
The Kobeissi Letter also highlights that the rising volatility, tightening liquidity, and weak sentiment bear a strong resemblance to these previous downturns. “We are seeing the market’s first circuit breakers since March 2020.”
Panic Selling is Heating Up
One key metric, the short-term holder (STH) realized price, which tracks the cost basis for recent Bitcoin buyers, has broken to the downside. As noted in QuickTake’s recent blog post, ” These drops have dipped below the -2 standard deviation band, signaling moments of heightened panic selling, as seen in May, July, and August. These dips in STH-SOPR aligned with periods of intense market stress.”
QuickTakes explains that the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio has not yet reached its lower band and is instead close to the average. As it stands, Bitcoin’s price is below the aggregate cost basis for these short-term investors. For context, the total cost basis for all Bitcoin holders, factoring in long-term investors as well, is hovering around $43,000.
Fear & Greed Index Hits Lows
The Fear and Greed Index for the stock market has hit a historic low of 4, “Extreme Fear.” Crypto analyst Atlas commented, “It’s never been this low, not during COVID, not after the FTX collapse.” Meanwhile, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index stands at 23, indicating “Fear” and a bearish sentiment, though not as severe as the stock market’s current state.
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, noted, “This doesn’t necessarily mean the absolute bottom is in, but it generally marks at least a local opportunity.” Edwards suggested that this could be a buying opportunity, noting that unless major unforeseen news arises, Bitcoin may continue to be influenced by the broader risk asset correlation.
CPI and PPI Reports
This week, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports are due for release. However, their importance is overshadowed by the U.S. trade tariffs. President Donald Trump ramped up tariffs on imported goods, including a blanket 10% tariff on nations such as the UK, Australia, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia. Many countries will face even higher tariffs starting April 9, with Cambodia facing a 49% tariff, and China an additional 34%.
For Bitcoin, these tariffs present a double-edged sword. If inflation remains stubbornly high, Bitcoin’s role as a hedge could gain appeal. However, if markets continue to panic, BTC may sell off alongside other risk assets. In prediction platforms like Polymarket, there’s a growing belief that the Federal Reserve may soon be forced to make an “emergency” rate cut. As Anthony Pompliano pointed out, “Inflation has fallen to the lowest levels since 2020,” but the Fed’s next move remains uncertain as the economic space shifts.
The ‘Death Cross’ on the Bitcoin Chart
Bitcoin is retracing its steps towards the $69,000 support levels seen in 2021. Over the past 30 days, BTC has seen a 10.51% drop, signaling potential vulnerability. Analyst Kevin Svenson warns that Bitcoin is at a tight spot, calling it “BTC’s last chance to maintain its macro uptrend structure.” If Bitcoin fails to hold these current support levels, it could face a breakdown, potentially driving the price lower.
A key indicator of Bitcoin’s current weakness is the loss of support from the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), which had been hovering around $77,000. This loss of support is seen as a critical signal. Trader CrypNuevo offers additional insight, suggesting that if Bitcoin falls below $77,000 but then reclaims it, he’ll view it as a deviation. This could set the stage for a recovery to push Bitcoin back toward higher levels, such as $87,000, as it currently hovers around $75,949.
Adding to the bearish outlook, Bitcoin has recently formed a “death cross” on the daily timeframes. This signal occurs when the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crosses below the 200-day SMA, often indicating further downside risk. According to Material Indicators, the momentum from this death cross places Bitcoin at a critical macro support test, urging traders to “stay tuned” for what’s next.
