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- Whale selling pressure is easing, signaling a potential re-accumulation phase that could support Bitcoin’s short-term momentum.
- Short-term holders remain profitable, with SOPR at 1.02, showing the uptrend is still healthy before reaching the critical 1.04 threshold.
The selling pressure from Bitcoin whales, which had been depressing the price in September, is now showing signs of abating. The latest on-chain data shared by analyst Burak Kesmeci on CryptoQuant shows a shift in whale behavior.
For almost an entire month, whales were recorded as net sellers and continued to reduce their holdings. This selling pressure did indeed depress the price, but in early October, signs of a change began to emerge. The data shows a slowing selling rate, seemingly indicating exhaustion after the large distribution wave in September.
On the chart used by Kesmeci, the decline in whale balances is clearly visible in the red zone. However, in recent days, the purple area has begun to narrow, indicating a recovery from the negative zone.
This could be interpreted as the beginning of a re-accumulation phase. In other words, while the market was previously overshadowed by selling pressure, large holders are now beginning to exercise restraint. If this trend continues, Bitcoin’s short-term upward momentum could potentially become even stronger.
Bitcoin SOPR Holds Steady Below Critical Level
In addition to the whale factor, Kesmeci is also analyzing the STH SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicator, which serves as a benchmark for short-term investor profitability. The ratio is currently at 1.02, indicating that investors are still selling at a profit.
This condition signals that the uptrend is still healthy. However, the 1.04 mark is considered a crucial point. If the SOPR breaks above this level, the market typically enters a profit-taking phase, which often leads to a brief consolidation. Since it is currently at 1.02, there is a safe window before reaching that critical point.
Furthermore, data from CNF adds another layer of clarity. Bitcoin open interest on Binance has just reached an all-time high. This surge indicates increased liquidity and broader trader participation.
On the other hand, this situation can also carry higher risks, as a sudden correction could lead to the potential for chain liquidations. Therefore, despite this good news, investors should remain vigilant.
The Role of Long-Term and Short-Term Whales
Interestingly, whale behavior is not uniform. In early October, the long-term holder (LTH) group was recorded as maintaining stable accumulation. They were calm, unwavering despite price fluctuations. The presence of LTH whales serves as a support that maintains long-term market stability. Conversely, the short-term holder (STH) group was more aggressive.
They frequently reposition when prices correct, which automatically increases short-term volatility. The combination of these two behaviors creates a unique dynamic: the market remains stable based on LTH, but occasionally experiences fluctuations due to STH maneuvers.
Meanwhile, as of press time, BTC is trading at about $123,800. In the last 4 hours, it has increased by 1.28%, in 24 hours by 1.27%, and in 7 days by 12.87%. This performance aligns with the indication that selling pressure is starting to ease and market optimism is growing again.
