- Technical analysts currently seem to agree that the USD 12,000 mark could be cracked after another correction of the Bitcoin price.
- David Puell has published an analysis that the USD 12,000 mark is the bears’ last bastion.
Since the beginning of August, the $12,000 mark for Bitcoin (BTC) has presented itself as an insurmountable resistance. BTC has already made four attempts, but has always been rejected relatively clearly and accurately (except for a few USD) at USD 12,000. Over the weekend, however, the Bitcoin price has once again moved into position to crack the USD 12,000 mark. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $11,852 USD with a slight drop of around 0.1% within the last 24 hours.
Despite the multiple rejections, the majority of technical analysts remain bullish. For example, the renowned analyst “HornHairs” explained via Twitter that at this point in time, all signs point to another pump and new highs for the year. However, as the chart below shows, the analyst initially expects a setback to around USD 11,400:
New yearly highs feel inevitable at this point. #Bitcoin […]
Would love to buy a dip that clears out these lows from the weekend to start the week.
Analyst “Flood [BitMEX]” made similar comments on Twitter a few hours ago, explaining that the starting position remains unchanged as long as BTC remains in the price range between USD 11,200 and USD 12,000. However, a breakout in either direction could determine the short-term trend:
Range still unbroken on $BTC. Same gameplan as before, will be hedging anything close to 12k if it fails to make a new high, and will be longing anything close to 11.2k. If either of those break pretty easy breakout trades in either direction.
Bitcoin: Is $12,000 the last bastion of the bears?
In line with the analysts of the two aforementioned analysts, David Puell, the former head of research at Adaptive Capital, which was closed in March, believes that $12,000 will be the last bastion of the bears. According to his analysis, the last major resistance is located at this level.
In a series of tweets, Puell examined Bitcoin’s price performance over the past few years and yesterday shared the chart below, which indicates that $12,000 is important as this is the point at which buyers of the 2019 highs will break even:
CIH is the delta between two volume profiles (in this case from 2018 onward): bitcoins unmoved (assumed as hodling) and bitcoins moved (assumed as distribution). Three levels of major buyouts are noticeble—two remain as major demand zones; one as a last major resistance.
The analyst also shared the chart below, which shows the HODL habits of Bitcoin whales. According to Puell, these whales will also break even in the USD 12,000 region, which makes the level even more significant than it already is.
Finally, unspent whale clusters confirm a great battle taking place. Two actors at play: top buyers at 12k-14k reaching their breakeven price, and current buyers active after the first higher high in over a year.