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- Bitcoin (BTC) declines to a four-week low; fascinatingly, analysts expect a further decline as exhaustion hits the market.
- Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is currently around 1.01, confirming this exhaustion claim.
Bitcoin (BTC) has plunged below a crucial support level at $112k to find a resort at $109k. According to our data, there has been a 1.86% decline in the last 24 hours and 6% fall in the last seven days. Amidst this backdrop, BTC’s daily trading volume is still up by 36% with $69 billion changing hands.
This pullback follows a recent report that the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates. As highlighted in our earlier discussion, the rumours alone caused the BTC price to fall by 10% in August.
More About the Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis
Outside the strong performance of the BTC trading volume, the short-term outlook of the asset does not look good, as multiple indicators show things could get worse. According to analysts, the “cumulative realized long-term holder profit taking,” for instance, hints at an extended correction. Its current level is reported to be around a similar level to that witnessed at the previous cycle peak.
Echoing a similar sentiment, Glassnode data suggests that long-term holders realized 3.4 million Bitcoin in profit. Not just that. There is a serious sign of exhaustion as the Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) inflows also begin to fade. These, coupled with market liquidation, forced the asset to fall to a four-week low at $108,700.
As indicated in our recent coverage, about $1 billion of Bitcoin long was liquidated recently.
Commenting on this, 10x Research head Markus Thielen highlighted that from this level of pullback, it is getting close to another stop-loss selling, defying the previous expectations of a rally in the short term.
Quickly lost momentum, and with prices now hovering close to this level again, another wave of stop-loss selling could emerge. This comes at a time when many are positioned for a Q4 rally — making the bigger surprise not a surge higher, but a correction instead.
Earlier, on-chain data disclosed that the realized profit/loss ratio has surpassed 90%. According to data, this has historically marked major cycle tops.
In another report, Thielen hinted that some Bitcoin holders are liquidating their assets, with some even selling at a loss. This is evident in the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which is currently at 1.01. A reading below 1 in bull markets is reported to signal exhaustion of sellers.
This means the current position signals buyers’ exhaustion. Another level of liquidation is also expected to be witnessed as the Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) is nearing zero.
The risk of deeper cooling remains high, highlighting a macro structure that increasingly resembles exhaustion.
According to Thielen, the current expectation is not clear, but Bitcoin could stage a rebound once it recaptures the $115k resistance levels.
As noted in our earlier publication, some analysts still believe that BTC could reach $160k by Christmas. As also mentioned in our previous news brief, Weiss Crypto analyst Juan Villaverde believes that Bitcoin could reach its major high in late November 2025. For Bitget CEO Gracy Chen, the lowest BTC could reach this year is $120k.
