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- Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin’s bullish breakout, driven by Federal Reserve rate cuts and unwinding of quantitative tightening (QT).
- Bitcoin surged to $87,000, with altcoins like Ethereum and Dogecoin rising 4%-8%, reflecting market optimism.
Bitcoin might be pushing for another massive rally. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes predicts a major bullish breakout driven by the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by April 1. The Fed rates remained stable at 4.5% after the latest FOMC meeting that triggered a 3.5% spike in BTC and lifted altcoins alongside it.
JAYPOW delivered, QT basically over Apr 1. The next thing we need to get bulled up for realz is either SLR exemption and or a restart of QE.
Was $BTC $77k the bottom, prob. But stonks prob have more pain left to fully convert Jay to team Trump so stay nimble and cashed up.
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) March 20, 2025
As the crypto market digested the central bank’s decision, Bitcoin quickly rebounded to $87,000. Analyst IncomeSharks pointed out that BTC managed to bounce off its supertrend support level. However, for the uptrend to solidify, it must close above the diagonal resistance of $86,351.
Recovery was not limited to Bitcoin. Major altcoins like Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Solana (SOL), and Dogecoin (DOGE) surged by 4% to 8% in the last 24 hours. The broader crypto market optimism is driven by investors’ renewed trust in the market.
Hayes Predicts Bullish Moves as QT Nears End
Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin’s recent dip to $77,000 may have set its bottom level. He attributes the potential upside to the Federal Reserve’s unwinding of quantitative tightening (QT) by April 1. According to Hayes, either an exemption to the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) or a return to quantitative easing (QE) could propel Bitcoin to further highs.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump urged the Federal Reserve to act swiftly. Posting on Truth Social, he emphasized the need for immediate rate cuts as tariffs gradually affect the economy. Trump stated:
The Fed would be MUCH better off CUTTING RATES as U.S.Tariffs start to transition (ease!) their way into the economy. Do the right thing. April 2nd is Liberation Day in America!!!,
Hayes also suggested that a continued correction in the US equity market might pressure Fed Chair Jerome Powell to adopt policies that align with the Trump administration’s stance. He advised investors to “stay nimble and cashed up.”
M2 Growth Hints at Bitcoin Surge
Apart from the Federal Reserve policies, the rising M2 money supply could play a major role in Bitcoin’s bullish trajectory. Historically, BTC has been in line with M2 growth, amplified by a leverage factor of 9. A 10% increase in liquidity could be the reason for double-digit gains in Bitcoin.
With liquidity expanding and investors piling into crypto, Bitcoin could be poised to touch $90,000 by mid-April. Spot Bitcoin ETFs are also regaining momentum, with BlackRock’s IBIT leading inflows. A sustained increase in institutional interest could add a further bullish factor to the rally.
Despite this optimism, not all agree with Hayes’ prediction that QT will end by April 1. Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen pushed back, stating, “QT is not ‘basically over’ on April 1.” He clarified that the Federal Reserve is still reducing its balance sheet by $35 billion per month through mortgage-backed securities.
