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- An analyst has disclosed that the price of gold is a “little-known” indicator that tends to predict the price of Bitcoin six months ahead.
- The analyst believes that the price of gold suggests that Bitcoin could record a big rally in late November 2025.
Months ago, the founder of Global Macro Investor, Raoul Pal, confirmed that the dominant force behind Bitcoin’s (BTC) price action has been geopolitical tensions, recessions, and rising global liquidity. According to him, up to 90% of the asset’s price action is backed by the expanding liquidity.
As indicated in our earlier post, EGRAG CRYPTO also believes that there is a close correlation between global liquidity and market prices.
While this appears historically accurate, Weiss Crypto analyst Juan Villaverde believes that there is another silent driver that mostly predicts the next direction of Bitcoin six months before the time. According to Juan, this little-known indicator is gold.
Historical Relationship Between Gold and Bitcoin?
Speaking on this analysis, Juan disclosed that historical data back his discovery. Per an accompanying historical chart, gold declined to a significantly low price in early 2019 despite recording some higher prices from August 2018. At that time, Bitcoin was also moving within very low levels after bottoming in mid-December 2018.
Another similar pattern occurred in 2021 when Bitcoin was still “enjoying” some bullish sentiment after hitting its all-time-high price in November. At that time, gold was struggling to “print” higher highs. Within a few sessions, Bitcoin recorded a “fatal” decline to reflect the price action of its gold counterpart.
Per Juan’s assessment, this pattern of behavior suggests that “major lows in gold tend to precede major lows in Bitcoin.” Meanwhile, he also believes that no indicator is perfect. According to him, a typical example is when the gold and Bitcoin relationship inverted temporarily after Russia invaded Ukraine.
What Should We Expect?
Juan argues that the expectation in this cycle, based on the dollar price of gold, points to only one thing: Bitcoin could reach a major high in late November 2025. However, no specific height was stated.
As reviewed in our recent publication, Bitcoin would first need to clear the $120k level before making a subsequent run to $150k. According to Cardano’s Charles Hoskinson, Bitcoin could reach $250k this cycle, as detailed in our previous news brief. However, Juan admitted that it is unclear whether this could mark the peak of the bull cycle. Nevertheless, there are some things to note.
According to Juan, Bitcoin could record a higher price level in 2026 when gold surges above its April high of $3,450. Failure to rally close to this level could also signal an end to the crypto bullish cycle after November 2025. For now, August and September are expected to “bring seasonal weakness” with $4.69 billion contracts expiring, as featured in our recent coverage.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $114k after declining by 0.52% in the last 24 hours and 4% in the last seven days. However, its trading remains 14% up from the previous day with $54.9 billion changing hands.
