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- Bitcoin options data shows $4.69B contracts expiring, $111,500 seen as major price pressure.
- Despite seasonal weakness, $6B flowed into Bitcoin ETFs in July, mostly driven by BlackRock IBIT.
Bitcoin’s trading value stood at $113,089 as of August 2, reflecting a 2.03% drop in the past day. This marks the start of a period that historically tends to show weakness for Bitcoin. From 2013 to 2024, it posted losses during August and September in 8 out of 12 years. The average drop during these two months has been 7.5%, according to data from COINOTAG.
In spite of this seasonal decline, investor sentiment remains optimistic. The Fear & Greed Index now stands at 72, signaling strong market sentiment. Institutional demand persists, albeit inflows into Bitcoin ETFs slowed during recent weeks. Michael Saylor remains optimistic over its long-term resilience, bolstering greater investor confidence.
ETFs registered a $6 billion into Bitcoin during the month of July despite the inflow correction. BlackRock’s IBIT was responsible for over 80% of this and kept institutional demand intact. BTC’s dominance over the crypto market has also reached a 3-year high at 59.3%, being supported by this capital influx.
Analysts Signal Caution as $4.69 Billion in BTC Options Expire
Options data for late July pointed to $4.69 billion in Bitcoin contracts approaching expiration, with a large build-up of open interest around $111,500. This level is viewed as a key area of tension that may influence price movement. Ethereum showed a similar setup, with a put/call ratio of 1.88 and the pain point near $3,850, indicating bearish sentiments.
Analysts at 10x Research and Matrixport warned of market consolidation potential. They cite weak technical developments and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty as signals that Bitcoin isn’t gearing up for growth. Ethereum and similar closely related assets historically track BTC’s moves in this season, adding to the cautious tone.
On the broader macro level, there are numerous key U.S. data releases throughout August expected to impact the market. The nonfarm payrolls, Consumer Price Index, Personal Consumption Expenditures and GDP readings may play into the Federal Reserve’s policy direction.
In addition, the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium at the end of the month may also hold greater significance. Trade tensions also returned to the scene, as new tariffs imposed from August 1 created another element of unpredictability for investor sentiment.
Bitcoin’s Prime Buying Zone — Key Levels to Watch Now
Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe believes the current market may be a good entry point for buyers. In his view, Bitcoin enters into an “optimal zone” and any meaningful fall below $108,000 will be unexpected. He mentions resistance at $114,700 and $116,800 as points that, once broken, may trigger an upside jump in prices.
Van de Poppe expects the breakout to most likely happen later in August or early September. A rapid rise could be the case if resistance is broken. His view aligns with recent optimism from Trader Mo, who posted on X
Everyone is convinced we will have a bearish August for $BTC, adding, but what they don’t realise is that August is always significantly green in post-halving years averaging a 36% increase.
