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- Bitcoin showed four consecutive sell signals as the UTXO ratio dropped, indicating a market entering an overheated and profit-taking phase.
- Analyst Axel Adler suggests Bitcoin may cool off sideways or dip slightly as the market resets after excessive unrealized gains.
The Bitcoin market seems to be showing signs of a ‘hot fever’ in late May 2025. Not just speculation, but this comes from Axel Adler Jr., an on-chain analyst at CryptoQuant. Using the Net UTXO Supply Ratio metric, he detected four consecutive sell signals—and for veteran market players, this is like an emergency siren starting to sound.
Bitcoin Showing Fatigue as Market Looks for a Cooldown
In his monitoring, Adler noted a decline in the UTXO ratio from a local peak. If we compare it, it’s like a body temperature starting to rise after a marathon: the body is tired, it needs to cool down. So it is with Bitcoin.
When too many coins are in an unrealized profit position, the temptation to sell increases. Those who survive are actually getting fewer. That is often a sign that the market is starting to get saturated and needs a break.
When the Market Needs to Cool Down
Adler mapped out two possible short-term possibilities. First, the price of BTC could ‘hang out’ in the range of $95,000 to $105,000, giving the market room to cool down. This is nothing new—such a phase has occurred after previous sharp spikes.
On the other hand, if selling pressure intensifies, BTC could potentially experience a mild correction to the $92,000–$94,000 area, which is the focus of the buy cluster and the daily 200-day MA.
However, market dynamics are not only about technicals. CNF previously reported that Bitwise data showed that the 60-day correlation between Bitcoin and the 10-year US Treasury futures contract is now at an all-time low. This is interesting, because usually major assets move together.
But this time, Bitcoin is actually starting to move away from bonds. It could be that investors are starting to lose their appetite for government bonds and are instead looking to BTC as an escape—especially in an increasingly unpredictable economy.
Furthermore, at the time of writing this article, BTC was down 1.30% in the last 24 hours. Its price is around $103,641, with a market cap of around $2.05 trillion. Not dramatic, but enough to make you wary. It’s as if the market is walking on a minefield, ready to slip at any moment.
It’s worth noting that four sell signals don’t necessarily mean immediate disaster. But it’s still a reminder to anyone who’s gotten too comfortable with their long positions. Think of it like a yellow light on the road, not necessarily a time to brake suddenly, but definitely not a time to speed up.
A market like this needs time to breathe. In the absence of additional macro pressures, prices will likely move sideways while waiting for a new direction. But if the pressure comes from outside, whether it’s US economic data, geopolitical tensions, or a major outflow from institutional investors, the correction could be deeper than expected.
