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- Expectations are growing due to Bitcoin’s halving along with the division of experts about its future consequences on BTC’s price.
- Some experts predict a supply shock from BTC that will drive up prices.
Perhaps the most important event of the year for the crypto space, Bitcoin’s halving continues to gain attention as the scheduled date for its execution approaches. The event will reduce the mining reward for a Bitcoin block by half. Therefore, the current mining reward of 12.5 BTC will be reduced to 6.25 BTC, cutting off the miners’ income from the network during this date.
In the market, a bullish sentiment seems to prevail, driven by two factors. The first is statements by investor and billionaire Paul Tudor Jones comparing Bitcoin to gold. The second reason is the rise of Bitcoin above the $10K mark after it had one of its worst falls during March. At the time of publication, BTC is trading at $9,578 with a 2.71% loss in the last 24 hours. On the monthly and weekly charts, BTC shows gains of 31.15% and 9.12% respectively.
Supply shock and Bitcoin post halving 2020
Experts and personalities of the crypto space, have not reached a consensus on whether the event will be bullish or bearish for Bitcoin. However, a significant number of experts believe that the event will be positive. Among the bullish experts, Anthony “Pomp” Pompliano has analyzed and commented the event in his podcast and in messages to his subscribers.
Pomp, like Tudor Jones and Mike Novogratz, believes that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s “infinite money” policy will be a catalyst for Bitcoin’s rise. As the traditional financial institution prints money in an attempt to mitigate the crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, Bitcoin is moving toward a reduction in its supply. According to Pomp, the halving will cause a supply shock:
This (halving) will see a programmatic decrease in the incoming daily supply of Bitcoin from 1,800 per day to only 900 Bitcoin per day. That supply shock has historically led to a material price increase over the following 18–24 months.
Pomp added that the halving, in combination with the Fed’s policy, will be “rocket fuel” for Bitcoin. Accordingly, Three Arrows Capital CEO Su Zhu said that halving will bring a supply shock to Bitcoin that will boost BTC’s price in the coming months.
Pantera Capital founder and CEO Dan Morehead is another analyst who is bullish on the halving. Morehead said that the halving is an opportunity with the ability to push Bitcoin to a new all-time high. The CEO of Pantera Capital made a prediction about BTC’s price and said that if the history of previous halvings is repeated, BTC could reach a price of $500,000 by August 2021:
IF history were to repeat itself, bitcoin would peak in August 2021 – at $533,431. Obviously that’s a big IF. That price sounds ludicrous… Just sayin’ that there’s more than a 50-50 chance bitcoin goes up – and goes up big.
Coinshares’ Melem Demiros is bullish due to this year’s halving conditions. According to Demiros, the halving is different from previous years. Demiros highlighted the maturity and growth that Bitcoin has had since its last halving in 2016.
On the other hand, Peter Schiff published a bearish message on his Twitter account. According to the investor, the halving will be a kind of collapse for the cryptocurrency and the Bitcoin market. Schiff said that Bitcoin “won’t last long” and believes that investors and traders will be disappointed with the halving’s outcome.
Finally, Willy Woo proposed a different scenario for Bitcoin trading after the 2020 halving. According to the analyst, the selling pressure on BTC will shift from the miners to the exchanges. This shift in BTC trading, Woo said, will slow the increase in Bitcoin market capitalization.
If we think Bitcoin needs "number go up" to exceed $1T and then $10T market cap to make a dent in the world (I'm one of those) then futures trading slows this vision down. Slows number go up, increases volatility.
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) May 9, 2020
