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Bitcoin’s declining exchange reserves, rising U.S. exchange dominance, and bullish technical signals point toward a potential second-half 2025 rally.
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Metrics like the Stablecoin Supply Ratio and moving averages suggest significant upside if current trends hold—making BTC a key asset to watch.
With several indicators pointing toward a potential rally in the latter half of 2025 for Bitcoin, let’s delve into the factors contributing to this optimistic outlook. This is in line with a recent post from CNF noting that Bitcoin’s exchange inflows hit a 5-year high, hinting at potential market shifts as whale activity may precede a price rally.
According to recent reports, U.S.-based exchanges are regaining dominance in BTC transfer volumes. This change is reflected in the “US vs. offshore ratio,” which had previously declined after Bitcoin’s all-time high in January.
According to Crypto Tracker, Bitcoin’s presence on centralized exchanges has diminished significantly, reaching levels not seen since 2018. Currently, only about 2.43 million BTC are held on exchanges, down from 3.4 million in 2021.
Technical Indicators Support Bullish Sentiment
Technical analysis adds weight to the bullish narrative. The 90-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) has crossed above the 365-day SMA, a pattern that has historically preceded significant price increases. According to CoinStats:
Another major bullish signal comes from the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR), which is currently 14.3. The SSR measures the relationship between Bitcoin’s market cap and the available supply of stablecoins like USDT and USDC, indicating how much buying power exists relative to BTC’s price.
Current Price Context
According to Bitget, the combination of increased U.S. exchange activity, declining exchange reserves, a favorable SSR, and supportive technical indicators paints a promising picture for Bitcoin’s performance in the latter half of 2025.
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $84,724.11, reflecting a 1.69% increase in the past day and 3.85% in the past week. This price movement aligns with the aforementioned indicators, reinforcing the possibility of a bullish trend in the near future. See BTC price chart below.
