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- JPMorgan expects the current rally to slow down once the halving hype cools off, and could send the price down to $42k.
- Meanwhile, another analyst believes that Bitcoin has more weeks to extend its bullish run.
Bitcoin (BTC) halving is expected to happen in April 2024, and as expected, there could be a massive bull run that could catapult the price to an unimaginable height. However, JPMorgan’s report warns that the market could take a downturn after the halving hype cools.
Explaining the impact of this event, JPMorgan stated that the profitability of miners would be reduced by half. According to the report, the price could fall to as low as $42k. As covered by crypto news Flash,Other experts also foresee more corrections in the near term.
The analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou reported:
This $42k estimate is also the level we envisage bitcoin prices drifting towards once bitcoin-halving-induced euphoria subsides after April…Bitcoin miners with below-average electricity costs and more efficient rigs are likely to survive while those with high production costs would struggle.
Throwing more light on this, Panigirtzoglou stated that larger publicly listed Bitcoin miners stand a better chance of surviving in this period as happened in 2022. This is because their market shares could rise after the halving event. According to Menno Martens, Crypto Specialist at VanEck, the event is “pivotal” due to the impact of previous operations. An analyst at Compass Point has confirmed this:
Overall, we continue to like the set-up for [Bitcoin]/Crypto and expect considerable upside in [calendar year 2024]with [Bitcoin] exiting the year at [around]$85K+ levels driven by ETF inflows outpacing available supply on exchanges.
The pre-Halving Rally of Bitcoin Has Just Started
Pending the event, MicroStrategy keeps piling up the assets as it recently purchased 3,000 tokens for about $155 million. Drawing insight from a recent Crypto News Flash publication, MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin profit soared by $4.65 billion.
Digital asset manager Coinshare has also disclosed that crypto investment products have recorded an increase in four straight weeks of capital inflow. In the week ending February 23, $598 million million of inflow bolstered Digital asset investment products.
Another analyst identified as Rekt Capital has disclosed that the pre-halving rally has just started, and may extend to a longer week.
The main takeaway here is that this pre-halving rally has only just begun technically speaking, and it’s a little bit too soon to talk about a last pre-halving retrace. This pre-halving retrace tends to occur a few weeks before the halving event. And so that just means that we might have a few weeks left, whether it’s still just hovering at the highs for a few more weeks, re-accumulation at highs before the retest or the retrace or maybe we see a little bit more limited upside before that retrace occurs.
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $62,033.89 after declining from $64k. In 24 hours, the asset has declined by 0.57%. However, its weekly return is currently around 21%. Interestingly, Bitcoin has had a price gain of 47.7% in the last 30 days.
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According to Rekt Capital, Bitcoin could record a price correction of 15% and 20% before the halving event. It is worth noting that the retracement phase resulted in a 19% fall in 2020.
Whatever this retrace turns out to be, it’s going to be the last pre-halving retrace, and it’s going to be the last bargain-buying opportunity before we transition into this post-having re-accumulation period which will take place after the halving and will last quite a substantial amount of time.
