- Bitcoin is showing signs of trend change in the short and long term, which could trigger a big-scale bullish rally.
- The psychological factor of the market at the moment is one of optimism, in view of the good fundamentals and that could help the definitive change of trend.
BTC/USD 4 HOURS
Bitcoin has broken the most pessimistic scenarios of a tame. In the previous analysis, we pointed to the bearish guideline in the RSI indicator, but the bulls came out on a pitch and burst the price upwards with a good volume of trades. The previous bearish scenario has been invalidated, and the Bitcoin quote should try to find a new high.
After recalculating Fibonacci retracements, we can see how Bitcoin has corrected up to the 61.8% ($8,240) retracement of its last peak $9,200. If the price is looking for a 161.8% peer extension, it could reach $10,100. The volume profile gives us a good input signal, when closing the candle above the POC (Point of Control) located at $8,750.
It should be noted that the RSI is in oversold levels, so the price could correct slightly, to continue the rally, we will be optimistic, as long as we stay above $8,700.
BTC/USD 1 DAY
If we analyze, a larger time frame, like the daily one, the scenario is also very bullish. Bitcoin has been moving within a downstream channel since July last year, channel that has been recently broken as we can see on the graph. After confirming the break, Bitcoin has made a movement of Throwback to the broken channel, a common signal when a break is confirmed and the new support obtained is sought.
The RSI is shown on the rise and in the domain zone of bulls over 60 and there is room to continue buying. The volume profile shows us strong support in the re-buy area, close to $7,600, but above $9,000 there is strong resistance where sales are rising and traders can take profits. It is therefore important that Bitcoin breaks through the $9,200 mark in the coming days.
BTC/USD 1 WEEK
The 1-week graph, confirms what we see on the smaller time frames. In this time span we see very interesting signs and indicators that make us quite optimistic. We find the first signal at the end of the previous candle, where the price broke the bearish channel and the 20-period of the EMA, reached a recovery and stayed above it.
Another very bullish sign is found on the MACD, which has recently reached a bullish cross close to zone 0, which means medium to long term buyer interest in a large period like this. The RSI is above 50 points, indicating a positive trend, although the bulls still have no indication of a true bull run.
BTC/USD 1 MONTH
The monthly chart, is showing us some very interesting Patterns of Japanese candlesticks. On the one hand, we are about to reach a Swing Low on the previous monthly candle, with 4 days to go until the end of the present month. If this signal is confirmed, we could be seeing the end of the long-term correction.
On the other hand, this month’s candle has formed with quite a body, and has a good chance of closing at its peak, which would confirm the best forecasts for the trend change. RSI is located above 50 points, and with route to both sides. The MACD is about to make a new bullish crossing.
In short, the overall view is very optimistic, once the intraday timeframes and long-term graphs have been analyzed. If the bulls breal the $9,200 mark, a real stampede can be started, but we have to be cautious and wait for the next movements.
On the 4-hour graph, the RSI is in an overbought zone, so a slight correction is possible, in the short term we are bullish as long as BTC doesn’t break the $8,700. It should also be borne in mind that this year good fundamentals are coming for Bitcoin, such as the Halving in the middle of the year, or rumors of the launch of Bitcoin futures contracts by Nasdaq.
We must also pay attention, how Bakkt and CME exchanges evolve and whether they achieve their goal of attracting institutional money to cryptocurrencies. The most thoughtful thing at the moment may be to stick to Hold, as market sentiment seems quite positive broadly.