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- Binance trading activity emerged as the primary driver of Bitcoin momentum, while ETF flows remained stagnant since early June.
- An analyst highlights short-term trader influence on Bitcoin’s volatility as institutional ETF support stays flat.
The Bitcoin market has recently entered an interesting phase, where price movements are no longer heavily supported by large institutions like ETF providers.
On-chain analyst Arab Chain on CryptoQuant noted that since early June, ETF momentum has been flat, almost pulseless. There are no signs of new accumulation, and even a reduction in holdings has been barely audible.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the market, Binance has emerged as a major source of volatility—driving the market through spikes and dips clearly recorded on the price chart.
Arab Chain observed that whenever momentum on Binance strengthens, the Bitcoin price tends to follow suit with a surge. When momentum on the exchange weakens, the price declines.
This is not a coincidental correlation. In a situation like the current one, when large institutions tend to be passive and opt for a “stay put” strategy, it is short-term trader activity on Binance that controls market direction.
Interestingly, the moment of decline in momentum on Binance in late June coincided with a correction from the mid-July price peak. However, just a few weeks later, when activity on Binance began to recover, the price rebounded.
This phenomenon has occurred repeatedly and reinforces the suspicion that it is the active market players on Binance, both retail and small institutions, who have been fueling the volatility in recent months.
Stagnant Bitcoin ETFs Raise Questions as Supply Gets Absorbed Fast
From an ETF perspective, this stagnation raises a major question mark. There has been no wave of accumulation, and even fund flows have not shown a positive pattern.
In August 2025, Bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows of $2 billion. Even gold ETFs like GLDM also outflowed $449 million in a week.
While these two typically move inversely, this time, they weakened simultaneously—demonstrating investor uncertainty about the direction of the Fed’s policy, especially with inflation still high and the labor market fragile.
On the other hand, data from the CNF reveals that demand from institutions and corporations is actually absorbing Bitcoin supply four times faster than miners can produce it.
This 400% imbalance indicates a supply squeeze that could explode the price at any time. In a scenario without major macro shocks and with steady inflows, a price target of $150,000–$200,000 by the end of 2025 is even considered realistic. However, at the end of August, the market faced a test of important on-chain support.
As we’ve highlighted, pressure mounted when whales took profits of around $4 billion—the highest figure since February—which naturally made some traders wary.
Despite this, the Bitcoin price remained relatively stable. As of the writing time, BTC has risen 0.94% in the last 24 hours and is trading at about $109,750.
Does the Real Power Lie with Active Traders?
Given these conditions, one thing is quite clear: the market is no longer the domain of large institutions. Instead, active liquidity from day traders is what drives direction. Binance serves as a kind of barometer: when the exchange is “busy,” prices surge. When activity subsides, the market weakens.
Not only that, Arab Chain also emphasized that the widening gap between Binance’s dynamic momentum and the flat ETFs could signal that this rally hasn’t yet received full institutional support. So, if we suddenly see ETFs become active again—well, that could be the beginning of a truly capital-driven bull run.
Until then, it seems Binance traders will continue to play a major role in guiding Bitcoin’s future price.
