- Bitcoin remains volatile amid Trump’s tariff shock, but Arthur Hayes eyes $76.5K as the key support line.
- Hayes predicts Bitcoin could hit $250K by 2025, fueled by Fed-driven liquidity and relentless money printing.
Bitcoin wobbled after Donald Trump’s tariff shock stirred investor sentiments. On the announcement, Bitcoin’s price remained calm, with prices swinging between $82,000 and $88,000 over the last 24 hours. But while the market’s reaction looked chaotic, former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes isn’t panicking just yet.
Mrkt no likey "Liberation Day", if $BTC can hold $76.5k btw now and US tax day Apr 15, then we are out of the woods. Don't get chopped up!
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) April 2, 2025
Hayes, watching from the sidelines, says there’s one level that matters most right now—$76,500. If Bitcoin can stay above that mark until April 15, which also happens to be U.S. tax day, he believes stability will return. He connects this sharp turbulence to what he calls “Liberation Day,” a nod to tax-related selling pressure, not panic selling.
Even with short-term turbulence, Hayes has a longer-term vision. He predicts Bitcoin will soar to $250,000 by 2025. It isn’t based on a vibe—it’s based on what he believes will be unstopable money printing.
Powell’s Dilemma and the Coming Liquidity Storm
In his latest blog, titled The BBC, Hayes outlines how U.S. monetary policy could unleash a flood of dollars into the system. He believes that Scott Bessent, tapped by Trump as his Treasury Secretary pick, would lean on Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair, to restart money printing in a major way.
Hayes breaks it down simply: if the U.S. economy grows at a modest 5% pace—combining 3% real GDP with 2% inflation—while the government borrows 3% of GDP every year, debt will grow faster than income. Foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries, especially from China, is drying up. With fewer buyers, Hayes argues the Fed and big American banks will have to step in.
This is where things start to tilt in Bitcoin’s favor. The Fed already gave in a little when it slashed rates in September 2024 to help Kamala Harris’s campaign and hinted at slowing its balance sheet wind-down. Hayes calls this move “Treasury QE,” a quiet return to flooding the market with cash—something Bitcoin loves.
$110K Before Any Pullback? Hayes Thinks So
Relaxing banking rules could unlock billions for Treasury buying, especially through the SLR exemption, a tool that Hayes says lets banks pile on risk-free leverage. Right now, the Fed has already cut its roll-off of Treasuries from $25 billion to just $5 billion per month. That’s a $240 billion swing in liquidity—before any full pivot to QE even begins.
Drawing from history, Hayes points to gold’s 30% surge after the Fed launched QE1 in 2008. He believes Bitcoin will outperform that move because it’s not tied to any government. With BTC bouncing off that key $76.5K level, Hayes says the climb to six figures looks inevitable, with $110K arriving even before we see a retest of that low.
If Powell caves fully and starts printing aggressively, Hayes predicts, “the Bitcoin rocket is ready to launch.” The correlation isn’t with GDP or even tariffs but with fiat liquidity—and in that equation, Bitcoin becomes the most compelling asset to own.
