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- Crypto analysts are optimistic about the impact of an actual spot Bitcoin ETF approval. They predict a significant price boost upon approval, potentially up to +20%.
- The current macroeconomic landscape and its potential changes may further boost Bitcoin into uncharted price territory, with a potential surge beyond $37,500.
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to show strength against the broader market selling pressure and is currently trading over $28,700 levels eyeing its next move upwards. False reports of Blackrock iShares spot Bitcoin ETF approval pushed the BTC price all the way above $30,000. However, Bitcoin retraced quickly soon after confirmation from BlackRock.
But this hasn’t stopped crypto market analysts from predicting the potential impact on Bitcoin price, post the actual approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF. Popular macro analyst Alex Kruger noted:
One thing is for sure. Whoever thinks the ETF is already priced in has just been proven wrong. Expect a +20% day move when approved.
Christopher Inks, an experienced trader and market psychology expert, concurred with this perspective, stating:
I share this sentiment. A breach above approximately $31,000 should propel the price into the $38,000 to $40,000 range, as I’ve consistently suggested.
He went on to say,
It’s important to recognize that Bitcoin has already been in a bullish trend for nearly five weeks. The weekly chart illustrates a distinct pattern of five upward waves, and today’s surge aligns with the typical scenario of a wedge breakout, followed by an immediate retracement back within the wedge.
Adding to the debate, Jeff Dorman, CIO at investment firm Arca, added that what all matters is whether significant inflows follow after the actual approval. He contended that the genuine price movement will materialize once the ETF obtains legitimate approval, and major corporations like BlackRock initiate their marketing campaigns.
Bitcoin ETF Could Lead to Significant Inflows
In his recent report for Bybit, the popular crypto analyst “crypto Researcher” gave bullish price predictions over the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF.
In the event that the Bitcoin ETF is on the verge of launching in the United States, “Crypto Researcher” suggests that crypto investors should closely monitor the capital inflow into this product. For instance, when BlackRock introduced its iShares Gold ETF, the product attracted $25 billion in market capitalization.
It’s worth noting that the Gold ETF market is considerably larger, holding over $85 billion in capital. Since the introduction of such financial products in the US, the underlying asset’s price has surged to new highs.
As the example shows, Bitcoin rallied +10% without an official statement by the SEC, based on an unconfirmed news source. In that case, the actual approval can have a more pronounced impact, and a +20-30% rally appears to be a reasonable assumption – which would imply $16-24 billion of Bitcoin ETF inflows,” he noted.
Furthermore, the current macroeconomic landscape introduces an additional dimension. The launch of a Bitcoin ETF might coincide with changes in this economic backdrop, potentially propelling Bitcoin into uncharted territory.
The analyst employed Tether (USDT) as a stand-in to assess the prospective consequences of these capital inflows. For every $2 billion in USDT inflows, the price of Bitcoin witnessed a 4% upswing. To put it differently, should the ETF market infuse $16 billion in capital, Bitcoin could potentially surge beyond $37,500.
🤑 #Tether is seeing an increase in #onchain activity, with active addresses hitting a 3-month high, largely due to increases in exchange deposits. Additionally, wallets with $1M-$10M in $USDT have been accumulating. Both indicate interest in future buys. https://t.co/qOUznVTgTb pic.twitter.com/cuDKWCnJwt
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) October 10, 2023
