- Positive surprises in GDP or a cooler inflation reading could boost risk assets, including Bitcoin, while weaker employment data might push investors toward defensive assets like stablecoins.
- The Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday is a critical focus. Deviations from estimates, alongside wage growth data, could spark market volatility, thus impacting Bitcoin price.
Bitcoin (BTC) price jitters near the $94,000 support as investors watch U.S. economic data to fuel the crypto market sentiment. However, this week could provide several important data releases that damage or increase confidence in risk assets like BTC. Here’s a look at seven crucial trends traders are watching.
1. Consumer Confidence Index
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for April will be reported on Tuesday. That reading for March equated to a gloomy view among consumers. The current median forecast sits at 87.4, and a disappointing result could pressure Bitcoin.
Economist Justin Wolfers recently commented, “Let me try to help you make sense of everything that’s going on: Tariff madness, plunging consumer confidence, rising recession odds, market fragility and all the ways that the economy will shape your life.” A weaker-than-expected confidence reading could boost BTC’s safe-haven appeal but may increase overall market volatility.
2. ADP Employment Report
A look at the private sector job creation will be provided in Wednesday’s ADP National Employment Report. March’s print of 155,000 outpaced estimates. This release is a little mixed as to what the market should expect, but if it hits above 160K, it could help Bitcoin keep going, as it should do anyway. A miss that comes below 110,000 would further feed into fears of slowing, making it more likely that sentiment turns to safe havens.
3. JOLTS Job Openings
However, A major factor is the labor market conditions. This week as well, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for March is scheduled. February’s report showed 7.6 million openings. Recession worries would be ignited by a reading below the forecasted 7.4 million.
As noted by Markets and Mayhem, “The soft data suggests that the hard data is set to fall. Consumer Confidence can lead the unemployment rate (inverted).” A sharp decline in job openings could trigger defensive moves into stablecoins.
4. Q1 GDP Growth
And so too is the advance Q1 2025 GDP estimate to be made mid-week. Previous growth slowed to 2.4% in Q4 2024. A number above 3% would instigate bullish sentiment across the whole cryptocurrency, while feeble readings would play to the advantage for Federal Reserve rate cuts — tailwind for Bitcoin.
5. Initial Jobless Claims
Another snapshot of employment health will be provided by Thursday’s weekly jobless claims. Resilience was suggested by the prior figure of 222,000. The spike could encourage caution, and a high number would reinforce a positive outlook for risky investments like Bitcoin. As highlighted in our previous story, BTC investors are setting the next target for $115K.
6. Core PCE Inflation
The Core PCE Price Index will be released in March, which will be in focus for inflation trends. Persistent inflation pressures were suggested by February’s 2.5% figure. Ophir Gottlieb, a hedge fund manager, said, “March PCE inflation (out on Wed Apr 30) should read 2.1% (rounded)… It could be time to cut, to be honest, politics aside.” A cooler reading could drive optimism about monetary easing.
7. Non-farm Payrolls (NFP)
The NFP report on Friday is the highlight worth noting. Any substantial deviation from estimates for the 130,000 jobs March will generate in this month could rattle markets, but March’s 228,000 gain beat expectations. Currently, wage growth is also under the microscope, and the report will bring it to crypto volatility as investors readjust expectations for Fed policy actions.
